FX investors are focused on August employment data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), which showed private-sector job creation of 54,000 versus 73,000 expected and 106,000 previously. Analysts note that amid economic uncertainty, companies are becoming more cautious—trimming headcount and slowing hiring. The biggest losses came in trade, transportation, and utilities (–17,000) as well as education and healthcare (–12,000), partly offset by gains in leisure and hospitality. Weekly jobless claims were also released today: initial claims rose to 237,000 from 229,000 (consensus 230,000), the four-week average eased to 237,000 from 238,500, and continuing claims fell to 1.940 million from 1.944 million (vs 1.960 million expected). Overall, the labor market continues to cool, increasing the odds of monetary easing at the September 17 FOMC meeting—an expectation Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated in an interview with CNBC today.

Eurozone

The euro is falling against the U.S. dollar and the pound, while trading mixed versus the yen.

July retail sales in the euro area fell 0.5% m/m (consensus –0.3%) and rose 2.2% y/y (consensus 2.4%). On the back of these figures, some analysts doubt domestic demand can continue to offset the damage to industry from higher U.S. tariffs, implying growth in the bloc may keep slowing in the medium term. On the other hand, conditions still look stable enough to keep the ECB from extending its dovish stance. A Reuters poll published today shows most economists expect rates to be left unchanged at the next meeting, and more than 60% think policy will not be eased again this year, with any move not likely before early next year.

United Kingdom

The pound is rising against the euro and yen but weakening versus the U.S. dollar.

Construction PMI rose to 45.5 from 44.3 (flash 45.2), a reading that may still weigh on growth prospects. A Bank of England survey on employment showed most firms cut headcount over the past three months at the fastest pace in four years. Managers also expect wage indexation to slow but do not believe it will be enough to tame high inflation. Businesses indicated they could raise prices by 3.5% over the next month and 3.7% over the next year.

Japan

The yen is declining against the U.S. dollar and pound and trading mixed versus the euro.

Reuters reports Tokyo and Washington are in the final stages of talks to reduce U.S. tariffs on Japanese auto imports from 27.5% to 15.0% by the end of this month. The deal is expected to be finalized by a special executive order from President Donald Trump, alongside joint statements detailing rules for Japan’s planned $550 billion investment package in the U.S. economy.

Australia

The Australian dollar is weakening against major peers—the U.S. dollar, euro, pound, and yen.

July trade data showed exports up 3.3% on stronger sales of energy, agricultural goods, and gold, while imports fell 1.3%. The trade surplus widened to AUD 7.310 billion from AUD 5.366 billion, the highest since early 2024, and well above the AUD 4.880 billion forecast. The figures underscore the economy’s resilience amid global trade uncertainty and reduce the likelihood of RBA easing this year.

Oil

Crude prices continue to correct lower ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting.

Producers are expected to consider further output increases in October to win back lost market share. Recall, OPEC+ has already agreed to raise targets by roughly 2.2 million bpd from April to September and to increase the UAE’s individual quota by 300,000 bpd. Additional pressure came from the latest API report showing a +0.622 million barrel build (vs a –3.400 million draw expected). At 18:00 (GMT+2), the EIA will publish official inventory data; a –2.000 million barrel draw is expected, which could slow the decline in oil prices.