The quotes are trading near 1.3428 (Murray level [4/8]) and may continue to decline, as the pound is under pressure from remarks by Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann. She noted that there are strong reasons to maintain the current borrowing cost for an extended period, but confirmed her readiness to take decisive action in the form of a “large and swift rate cut” if risks to domestic demand intensify. For now, however, the UK economy shows resilience (with 0.3% GDP growth in Q2), and accelerating inflation, which reached 3.8% y/y in July, gives little reason to expect monetary easing in the near term.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is supported by August consumer confidence data: the index fell from 98.7 to 97.4, above the forecast of 96.4, confirming consumer confidence in the economic outlook. A factor limiting the downside in GBP/USD is renewed pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump on the Fed. On Tuesday, he announced the dismissal of FOMC member Lisa Cook on allegations of false mortgage application statements, evidently aiming to replace her with a more loyal candidate supportive of rate cuts. However, Cook said she would challenge the decision in court, since the president lacks the authority to remove her from office.
Support and resistance levels
The instrument is near the support zone of 1.3428–1.3405 (Murray [8/8], Fibonacci retracement 23.6%, middle Bollinger Band). A breakdown below could extend the decline toward 1.3184 (Murray [0/8], Fibonacci retracement 38.2%) and 1.3062 (Murray [–2/8]). The key bullish level is 1.3550 (Murray [6/8]); a breakout above would open the way toward 1.3672 (Murray [8/8]) and 1.3794 (Murray [+2/8]).
Technical indicators are mixed: Bollinger Bands are flat, MACD is near the zero line with low volumes, and Stochastic is turning downward.
Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3672, 1.3794
Support levels: 1.3405, 1.3184, 1.3062
Trading scenarios
Short positions can be opened below 1.3405, targeting 1.3184 and 1.3062, with a stop-loss at 1.3530. Implementation horizon: 5–7 days.
Long positions can be opened above 1.3550, targeting 1.3672 and 1.3794, with a stop-loss at 1.3460.
Scenario
Timeframe: Weekly
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry point: 1.3400
Take Profit: 1.3184, 1.3062
Stop Loss: 1.3530
Key levels: 1.3062, 1.3184, 1.3405, 1.3550, 1.3672, 1.3794
Alternative scenario
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry point: 1.3555
Take Profit: 1.3672, 1.3794
Stop Loss: 1.3460
Key levels: 1.3062, 1.3184, 1.3405, 1.3550, 1.3672, 1.3794