Technical factors are supporting the upward trend as some investors take profit ahead of key U.S. labor market data. At 14:15 (GMT+2), ADP will release its private-sector employment report, expected to show a slowdown from 104,000 to 65,000 jobs. On Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank remains in a difficult position due to persistent inflation, which could still rise, warning it is too early to declare victory. He also noted signs of economic cooling and a softer labor market, with a sustainable monthly jobs growth level around 75,000.

A potential Fed rate cut could also pressure the Bank of England to follow suit, despite the U.K.’s more challenging inflation backdrop. Britain’s economy, however, has less resilience, giving policymakers less time to hesitate. Meanwhile, yesterday’s data provided modest support for the pound: the S&P Global services PMI rose from 53.6 to 54.2 in August, while the composite index climbed from 53.0 to 53.5. Tomorrow at 08:00 (GMT+2), July retail sales data will be released, expected to show annual growth slowing from 1.7% to 1.3% and monthly growth easing from 0.9% to 0.2%.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are flattening with a narrowing range, reflecting the mixed tone of recent trading. MACD is declining, maintaining a bearish signal with the histogram below the signal line. The Stochastic is moving lower, nearing the 20 mark, highlighting short-term oversold risks for the pound.

  • Resistance levels: 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3562, 1.3600.

  • Support levels: 1.3364, 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200.

GBP/USD

Trading Scenarios Forecast

  • Long positions may be considered after a confident breakout above 1.3450, targeting 1.3562. Stop-loss: 1.3400. Horizon: 2–3 days.

  • A rebound from 1.3450 followed by a break below 1.3364 could signal new short positions toward 1.3250. Stop-loss: 1.3420.

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Intraday

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry point: 1.3455

  • Take Profit: 1.3562

  • Stop Loss: 1.3400

  • Key levels: 1.3200, 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3364, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3562, 1.3600

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry point: 1.3360

  • Take Profit: 1.3250

  • Stop Loss: 1.3420

  • Key levels: 1.3200, 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3364, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3562, 1.3600