Sterling’s negative momentum is driven by the continued rise in long-term bond yields as demand weakens: yesterday, 30-year gilts reached their highest level since 1998 at 5.695%, pressuring the pound. In addition, Bank of England consumer credit rose sharply in July from GBP 1.471B to GBP 1.622B, well above the forecast of GBP 1.350B, diverting funds from the real sector. In August, the manufacturing PMI slipped from 48.0 to 47.0, below expectations of 47.3.

The U.S. dollar stands at 98.30 in the USDX, supported by an appeals court ruling that most of President Donald Trump’s import tariffs were unlawful. The decision keeps tariffs in place until October 14, pending a Supreme Court appeal. On Friday at 14:30 (GMT+2), U.S. labor market data will be released: NFP is expected to rise modestly to +74k (vs. +73k prior), while ADP employment is projected at +71k, down sharply from +104k in July.

Support and Resistance

On the daily chart, GBP/USD trades just below the resistance line of the descending channel (1.3500–1.3030).

Technical indicators show a sell signal: fast EMAs in the Alligator indicator are slightly below the signal line, while the AO histogram forms corrective bars in negative territory.

  • Resistance: 1.3450, 1.3740

  • Support: 1.3270, 1.3010

Trading Scenarios Forecast

  • Short positions may be opened after a break below 1.3270, targeting 1.3010, with a stop-loss at 1.3340. Horizon: 7+ days.

  • Long positions may be considered after a break above 1.3450, targeting 1.3740, with a stop-loss at 1.3380.

GBP/USD

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry: 1.3265

  • Take Profit: 1.3010

  • Stop Loss: 1.3340

  • Key Levels: 1.3010, 1.3270, 1.3450, 1.3740

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry: 1.3455

  • Take Profit: 1.3740

  • Stop Loss: 1.3380

  • Key Levels: 1.3010, 1.3270, 1.3450, 1.3740