At 14:15 (GMT+2), the ADP private employment report is due, expected to show a sharp slowdown from 104,000 to 65,000 jobs. This could weigh on sentiment ahead of Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls release at 14:30 (GMT+2), where forecasts point to average hourly earnings slowing from 3.9% to 3.7% y/y, monthly growth holding at 0.3%, and job creation rising by 75,000 compared with 73,000 in July. Unemployment is projected to edge higher from 4.2% to 4.3%. Earlier, JOLTS data showed job openings falling from 7.357M to 7.181M in July, slightly below expectations of 7.40M.

Meanwhile, the yen remains under pressure from rising political risks after reports of a potential resignation of Liberal Democratic Party leader Hiroshi Moriyama following election losses. Sanae Takaichi, known for her dovish stance on monetary policy, is seen as a possible successor. The outlook for a Bank of Japan rate hike in September remains uncertain, with about 70% of analysts expecting an adjustment by year-end.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are flattening, with the upper boundary expanding, supporting the case for further short-term upside. MACD is rising above the signal line, maintaining a bullish signal. The Stochastic oscillator shows upward momentum but is nearing the “80” mark, suggesting overbought risks for the dollar in the near term.

  • Resistance levels: 148.77, 149.50, 150.00, 150.50.

  • Support levels: 148.00, 147.40, 146.56, 146.00.

Trading Scenarios Forex

  • Long positions may be opened after a confident breakout above 148.77, targeting 150.00. Stop-loss: 148.00. Horizon: 2–3 days.

  • A rebound from 148.77 followed by a drop below 148.00 could trigger short positions toward 146.56. Stop-loss: 148.77.

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Intraday

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry: 148.80

  • Take Profit: 150.00

  • Stop Loss: 148.00

  • Key levels: 146.00, 146.56, 147.40, 148.00, 148.77, 149.50, 150.00, 150.50

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry: 147.95

  • Take Profit: 146.56

  • Stop Loss: 148.77

  • Key levels: 146.00, 146.56, 147.40, 148.00, 148.77, 149.50, 150.00, 150.50