GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Eyes Recovery Toward 1.3355 Ahead of U.S. PCE Data

Forecasts suggest the core PCE index will remain at 2.9% y/y while slowing from 0.3% to 0.2% m/m, with the broader index expected to rise from 2.6% to 2.7% y/y and from 0.2% to 0.3% m/m. Later at 16:00 (GMT+2), markets will focus on the University of Michigan’s September inflation expectations, projected to stay unchanged at 4.8% for one year and 3.9% for five years.

Yesterday’s main driver for the U.S. dollar was the revised Q2 GDP print, showing 3.8% growth versus the previous 3.3% estimate, marking the strongest pace in two years. This prompted markets to scale back expectations of further Fed easing.

Meanwhile, the U.K. economy continues to lag, reinforcing dovish expectations for the Bank of England. The regulator left rates unchanged last week, signaling a possible return to lower borrowing costs. GDP data showed stagnation in July, following a 0.4% expansion in June, with annual growth steady at 1.4%.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are turning downward, reflecting an expanding range that lags behind recent bearish moves. MACD is sliding lower, confirming a firm sell signal as the histogram remains below the signal line. Stochastic is pointing down but sits near oversold territory, highlighting short-term risks of pound exhaustion.

Resistance levels: 1.3364, 1.3415, 1.3450, 1.3500.

Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200, 1.3150.

Trading Scenarios and GBP/USD Outlook

Long positions may be considered on a confirmed breakout above 1.3364, targeting 1.3500, with a stop-loss at 1.3300. Expected timeframe: 2–3 days.

Alternatively, a pullback from 1.3364 resistance followed by a drop below 1.3300 could trigger new short positions toward 1.3200, with a stop-loss at 1.3364.