Current Dynamics

GBP/USD has been climbing steadily since the start of the month and is now testing the 1.3550 handle (Murray [6/8]). Sterling drew support from June UK labor data: the unemployment rate held at 4.7%, employment rose by +238k after +134k prior, average earnings including bonuses slowed to 4.6% from 5.0%, while ex‑bonus pay remained at 5.0%. The sector looks resilient despite global trade uncertainty, raising the odds that the Bank of England could refrain from further policy easing.

Last week, the BoE cut rates by 25 bps on a narrow margin of one vote. With inflation still elevated and jobs growth firm, analysts note the balance of views at the MPC could tilt back toward a more hawkish stance.

Risk appetite is also helped by the planned August 15 meeting in Anchorage between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss diplomatic steps on the Russia–Ukraine conflict — a potential de‑escalation that would support risk assets.

Conversely, the U.S. dollar remains pressured by July CPI: headline slowed to 0.2% m/m (from 0.3%) and stayed at 2.7% y/y (vs 2.8% expected). While core CPI rose to 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, markets focused on broader disinflation dynamics alongside labor softness (U.S. unemployment in July up to 4.2%, payroll growth to +73k). The combination strengthens expectations for a Fed rate cut in September.

Overall, the growing policy divergence between the BoE and the Fed favors further GBP/USD upside over the medium term.

Support & Resistance

On the daily chart, the pair is probing 1.3550 (Murray [6/8]). A sustained break would open room toward 1.3672 (Murray [8/8]) and 1.3794 (Murray [+2/8]).

Resistance

  • 1.3550
  • 1.3672
  • 1.3794

Support

  • 1.3495 (23.6% Fib; mid‑Bollinger)
  • 1.3306 (Murray [2/8])
  • 1.3184 (Murray [0/8]; 38.2% Fib)

Indicators

  • Bollinger Bands: broadly flat.
  • MACD: preparing to cross into positive territory.
  • Stochastic: near overbought, may exit in the short term.

Trade Setups

Primary Scenario — BUY STOP

Enter long on a break and hold above 1.3550, targeting 1.3672 and 1.3794. Stop‑loss: 1.3500. Holding period: 5–7 days.

Alternative Scenario — SELL STOP

Enter short on a break and hold below 1.3495, targeting 1.3306 and 1.3184. Stop‑loss: 1.3470.

Timeframe Recommendation Entry Take Profit Stop Loss Key Levels
Weekly BUY STOP 1.3555 1.3672, 1.3794 1.3500 1.3184, 1.3306, 1.3495, 1.3550, 1.3672, 1.3794
Weekly (Alt.) SELL STOP 1.3490 1.3306, 1.3184 1.3470 1.3184, 1.3306, 1.3495, 1.3550, 1.3672, 1.3794