Today, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released an updated global growth forecast, projecting world GDP to expand by 3.2% this year, up from the earlier estimate of 2.9%. For the U.S., the outlook was mixed: GDP is now expected to grow 1.8% in 2025 versus the previous 1.6%, but still below the 2.8% recorded in 2024. In 2026, growth is expected to slow further to 1.5%. Meanwhile, recent Federal Reserve comments underscored a lack of consensus within the FOMC. Board member Steven Miran, appointed by President Donald Trump, called for aggressive rate cuts, arguing that current policy is overly restrictive and damaging the labor market. However, his colleagues, including St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, urged caution, stressing the need to combat inflation. Later today at 18:35 (GMT+2), Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce in Warwick, Rhode Island, where he is expected to address the U.S. economic outlook and provide guidance on future policy steps.

Eurozone

The euro is losing ground against the U.S. dollar on forex markets while showing mixed dynamics versus the pound and yen.

Preliminary September PMI data for the eurozone showed manufacturing slipping from 50.7 to 49.5, entering contraction, while services rose sharply from 50.5 to 51.4. The composite index improved from 51.0 to 51.2, beating forecasts of 51.1. Germany showed a similar pattern: manufacturing slowed from 49.8 to 48.5, while services rebounded from 49.3 to 52.5, returning to growth, lifting the composite PMI from 50.5 to 52.4. Overall, business activity is holding up, with weakness in industry—hit by higher U.S. tariffs—offset by gains in services and domestic demand. France remains the weak link, with all major PMIs stuck in contraction amid political instability.

United Kingdom

The pound is falling against the U.S. dollar but trading mixed versus the euro and yen.

Preliminary September PMI data showed manufacturing slipping from 47.0 to 46.2 (vs. 47.1 forecast), services dropping from 54.2 to 51.9 (vs. 53.4 expected), and the composite index down from 53.5 to 51.0. Activity is still expanding but at a slower pace than expected. Businesses cite reduced confidence ahead of possible tax hikes in November. Meanwhile, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said he is satisfied with progress in reducing price pressures. The OECD raised its U.K. GDP growth forecast for this year from 3.1% to 3.5%.

Japan

The yen is showing mixed performance against major peers—the euro, pound, and U.S. dollar.

The OECD revised its Japan growth forecast higher, citing strong corporate earnings and recovering investment. GDP is now expected to grow 1.1% versus 0.7% previously, before slowing to 0.5% in 2026. Tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+2), preliminary September PMI figures will be released: manufacturing is expected to dip from 49.7 to 49.5, while services may edge up from 53.1 to 53.4, providing some support to the yen.

Australia

The Australian dollar is gaining ground today against the U.S. dollar, euro, pound, and yen.

Preliminary September PMI data showed manufacturing falling from 53.0 to 51.6, services from 55.8 to 52.0, and the composite index from 55.5 to 52.1. Indicators remain in growth territory but at a slower pace. This leaves the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) room to consider further rate cuts if needed.

Oil

Oil prices are rising again amid setbacks in restarting crude exports from Iraqi Kurdistan. Producers are demanding debt repayment guarantees, stalling the agreement between Iraq’s federal government and the Kurdish regional authorities. As a result, around 230,000 barrels per day of supply will remain offline for now. Later today at 22:30 (GMT+2), the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its weekly inventory report. Last week, U.S. stockpiles fell by 3.42 million barrels, and a continued drawdown could lend further support to oil prices.