The Labor Department’s report could significantly influence investor sentiment before the September FOMC meeting, where the monetary easing cycle is expected to resume. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted risks of economic cooling alongside signs of renewed inflationary pressure. Thursday’s macro data also pointed toward a dovish stance: ADP’s employment report showed private payrolls rose by just 54,000 in August after 106,000 in July, missing forecasts of 65,000. Weekly jobless claims climbed to 237,000 from 229,000 (vs. forecast 230,000), while continuing claims fell to 1.94 million from 1.944 million, beating expectations of 1.96 million. Meanwhile, ISM services PMI strengthened from 50.1 to 52.0, exceeding forecasts of 51.0 and supporting the dollar.

The euro came under pressure yesterday after July retail sales slowed to 2.2% YoY from 3.5% (vs. forecast 2.4%) and fell 0.5% MoM after a 0.6% rise (vs. forecast –0.2%). Today, attention is on Germany’s factory orders, which dropped 3.4% YoY after +1.7% previously and fell 2.9% MoM after –0.2% (forecast +0.5%).

GBP/USD

The pound shows mixed dynamics against the dollar, preparing to end the week with slight losses. The pair is attempting to recover Tuesday’s drop, though weak U.K. macro data limits bullish momentum. July retail sales rose 1.1% YoY (vs. forecast 1.3%) and 0.6% MoM (vs. forecast 0.2%).

At 14:30 (GMT+2), U.S. nonfarm payrolls will be released, with forecasts pointing to 75,000 new jobs (up from 73,000), while average hourly earnings may slow from 3.9% to 3.7% YoY and remain at 0.3% MoM. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. Investors worry the real numbers may disappoint, especially after ADP’s weak report of only 54,000 new private-sector jobs versus 106,000 previously. Support for the pound yesterday came from S&P Global’s construction PMI, which rose from 44.3 to 45.5 in August, above the 45.2 estimate.

NZD/USD

The New Zealand dollar is correcting higher against the U.S. dollar, testing 0.5865 in the Asian session after a sharp drop yesterday. Market activity is low as traders await the final U.S. jobs report at 14:30 (GMT+2).

CME FedWatch Tool shows a 90% probability the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps on September 17, with at least one more cut expected by year-end. ADP data showed just 54,000 new jobs in August, half the July pace of 106,000 and below forecasts of 65,000.

NZD remains under pressure from uncertainty over China’s economic outlook—its main trading partner—and from U.S. tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump, which are reshaping global supply chains. RBNZ maintains a dovish stance: in August, the central bank cut rates by 25 bps to 3.00% and signaled a move to 2.50% by year-end.

USD/JPY

The U.S. dollar is consolidating near 148.00 against the yen in Asia, with low activity ahead of today’s key U.S. labor market release at 14:30 (GMT+2). Markets expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps and signal at least one more move before year-end, though some analysts see a chance of a 50 bps cut. Forecasts suggest NFP will rise to 75,000 from 73,000, average hourly earnings will slow from 3.9% to 3.7% YoY, and unemployment will tick up from 4.2% to 4.3%.

Japan’s data were mixed: July leading indicators rose from 105.6 to 105.9, while coincident indicators fell sharply from 116.7 to 113.3. Household income rose 4.1% YoY (vs. 3.0% forecast), pointing to rising inflation risks and supporting the yen by potentially pushing the BOJ toward tightening.

XAU/USD

Gold is rebounding in Asian trading, with XAU/USD testing 3560.00 after yesterday’s pullback from record highs. Traders await the final U.S. jobs report at 14:30 (GMT+2), which could shape Fed policy expectations ahead of the September meeting.

Recent data favor a rate cut: ADP reported only 54,000 new private-sector jobs in August, jobless claims rose to 237,000, and continuing claims fell to 1.94 million. Meanwhile, ISM services PMI climbed to 52.0 from 50.1, beating forecasts of 51.0 and lending temporary support to the dollar.