In July, tourist arrivals to New Zealand increased by 6.6% after a 0.8% rise the previous month. Chinese statistics showed consumer inflation slowing by 0.4% YoY in August after flat growth in July (vs. –0.2% forecast), while the MoM figure slipped from 0.4% to 0.0%. Meanwhile, China’s Producer Price Index dropped 2.9% YoY in August, following –3.6% a month earlier, in line with market expectations. Despite mixed signals from China, the NZ dollar remains resilient.

Later today at 14:30 (GMT+2), the U.S. will release August PPI data: core PPI excluding food and energy is expected to ease from 3.7% to 3.5%. On Thursday, focus will shift to CPI, where analysts forecast annual inflation to accelerate from 2.7% to 2.9% and the monthly figure to rise from 0.2% to 0.3%, while the core reading is seen steady at 3.1% and 0.3%.

On Friday, forex investors will watch August Business NZ Manufacturing PMI (00:30 GMT+2), which previously jumped from 49.2 to 52.8, and electronic card retail sales (00:45 GMT+2). Both indicators could influence near-term sentiment for the NZD/USD forecast.

Support and Resistance Levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are expanding upward, confirming strong bullish momentum. MACD is rising above the signal line, holding a firm buy signal, while the indicator line attempts to settle above zero. Stochastic also points upward but is nearing overbought levels, highlighting short-term risks of a pullback.

  • Resistance: 0.5950, 0.5975, 0.6000, 0.6030

  • Support: 0.5920, 0.5888, 0.5860, 0.5832

Trading Scenarios

  • Buy Stop: Longs may be considered after a breakout above 0.5950, targeting 0.6030. Stop-loss at 0.5920. Implementation: 2–3 days.

  • Sell Stop: Shorts may be opened after a rejection at 0.5950 and a break below 0.5920, with a target at 0.5860. Stop-loss at 0.5950.

NZD/USD

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Intraday

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry Point: 0.5955

  • Take Profit: 0.6030

  • Stop Loss: 0.5920

  • Key Levels: 0.5832, 0.5860, 0.5888, 0.5920, 0.5950, 0.5975, 0.6000, 0.6030

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry Point: 0.5915

  • Take Profit: 0.5860

  • Stop Loss: 0.5950

  • Key Levels: 0.5832, 0.5860, 0.5888, 0.5920, 0.5950, 0.5975, 0.6000, 0.6030