In Q2, retail sales rose by 0.5%, with growth recorded in 8 out of 15 sectors. The strongest contributions came from electrical and electronic goods (+102.1 million NZD), supermarkets (+60.1 million NZD), pharmaceuticals (+20.9 million NZD), department stores (+19.7 million NZD), leisure goods (+12.8 million NZD), furniture and housewares (+9.1 million NZD), and alcoholic beverages (+4.7 million NZD). The sharpest declines were noted in clothing and footwear (–51.5 million NZD), fuel (–16.9 million NZD), and building supplies (–9.3 million NZD).

The U.S. dollar advanced to 98.30 on the USDX after President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he had “sufficient grounds” to dismiss Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, citing allegations of false mortgage filings. Despite these claims, Cook continues to serve, as the Fed refuses to remove her without a court ruling. Against this backdrop, investors paid little attention to the drop in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index from 98.7 to 97.4, compared with forecasts of 96.4.

Support and Resistance Levels

The pair is approaching the support line of a channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.5900–0.5720.

Technical indicators strengthen the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are diverging from the signal line, while the AO histogram is forming corrective bars in the negative zone.

  • Resistance levels: 0.5900, 0.6050
  • Support levels: 0.5800, 0.5670

Trading Scenarios

Short positions may be opened after a decline and consolidation below 0.5800 with a target of 0.5670. Stop-loss at 0.5900. Horizon: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after a rise and consolidation above 0.5900 with a target of 0.6050. Stop-loss at 0.5830.

NZD/USD

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly
  • Recommendation: SELL STOP
  • Entry Point: 0.5800
  • Take Profit: 0.5670
  • Stop Loss: 0.5900
  • Key Levels: 0.5670, 0.5800, 0.5900, 0.6050

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP
  • Entry Point: 0.5900
  • Take Profit: 0.6050
  • Stop Loss: 0.5830
  • Key Levels: 0.5670, 0.5800, 0.5900, 0.6050