The U.S. dollar index (USDX) holds at 97.70 with low volatility, as no key macro releases are expected today. Investors continue to assess Friday’s labor data: August nonfarm payrolls dropped from 79K to 22K, the lowest since October, while private payrolls declined from 77K to 38K, pushing unemployment from 4.2% to 4.3%. With signs of labor market weakness, expectations of Fed easing are growing. CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of a 50 bp cut at 10%, which could increase after Wednesday’s wholesale inflation data at 14:30 (GMT+2).

Support and Resistance Levels

The pair is nearing the channel resistance at 0.5920–0.5720.

Technical indicators weaken the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator approach the signal line, while the AO histogram forms corrective bars in negative territory.

  • Resistance levels: 0.5940, 0.6040

  • Support levels: 0.5860, 0.5730

Trading Scenarios

  • Long positions may be opened above 0.5940 with a target at 0.6040 and stop-loss at 0.5880. Implementation horizon: 7+ days.

  • Short positions may be opened below 0.5860 with a target at 0.5730 and stop-loss at 0.5920.

NZD/USD

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry Point: 0.5940

  • Take Profit: 0.6040

  • Stop Loss: 0.5880

  • Key Levels: 0.5730, 0.5860, 0.5940, 0.6040

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry Point: 0.5860

  • Take Profit: 0.5730

  • Stop Loss: 0.5920

  • Key Levels: 0.5730, 0.5860, 0.5940, 0.6040