Many investors are hesitant to open new positions ahead of the final US August labor market report, due at 14:30 (GMT+2), which could be decisive for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on September 17. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is nearly 90%, with markets also expecting at least one more cut by the end of 2025. For now, traders are assessing ADP’s private-sector jobs data, which showed an increase of just 54,000 new jobs in August — well below July’s 106,000 and short of the forecast of 65,000.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar remains under pressure due to uncertainty around China’s economic outlook — the country’s main trade partner. Additional concerns stem from higher tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, which are already weighing on global trade and pushing partners to seek alternative supply chains.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintains a dovish stance: in August, it cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 3.00% and signaled further easing toward 2.50% by year-end. Policymakers noted that Q2 economic activity was significantly weaker than earlier estimates, but analysts expect a recovery supported by previous stimulus measures.

Support and Resistance Levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are trending downward, with the price channel narrowing — reflecting mixed short-term trading sentiment. MACD is attempting to turn upward and generate a new buy signal (the histogram aims to move above the signal line). In contrast, the Stochastic indicator maintains a strong bearish trend, barely reacting to attempts at upward momentum. Traders should await confirmation from indicators.

Resistance levels: 0.5888, 0.5920, 0.5950, 0.5975.

Support levels: 0.5860, 0.5832, 0.5800, 0.5775.

Trading Scenarios

  • Long positions may be considered after a confident breakout above 0.5888 with a target of 0.5950. Stop-loss — 0.5860. Implementation timeframe: 2–3 days.

  • A return of bearish momentum with a breakout below 0.5832 could signal new short positions targeting 0.5775. Stop-loss — 0.5860.

NZD/USD

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Intraday

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry point: 0.5890

  • Take Profit: 0.5950

  • Stop Loss: 0.5860

  • Key levels: 0.5775, 0.5800, 0.5832, 0.5860, 0.5888, 0.5920, 0.5950, 0.5975

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry point: 0.5830

  • Take Profit: 0.5775

  • Stop Loss: 0.5860

  • Key levels: 0.5775, 0.5800, 0.5832, 0.5860, 0.5888, 0.5920, 0.5950, 0.5975