Overall, the Swiss economy remains stable. Preliminary Q2 GDP data suggest growth of just 0.1%, as a 0.10% decline in industrial output (after an earlier 8.90% increase) was offset by gains in the services sector. Nevertheless, these results are the weakest since Q1 last year, and with tariffs in place, Q3 could even post negative growth.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (USDX) trades at 97.98, showing little reaction to headlines. Investors are closely watching Trump’s talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders aimed at conflict resolution. While no concrete terms have been announced, reports suggest that the U.S. is prepared to provide security guarantees to Ukraine if a peace agreement is reached. On the monetary side, the focus shifts to the September FOMC meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut to the 4.00–4.25% range remains possible. However, weaker inflation figures have somewhat reduced investor certainty. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September cut now stands at 83.6%, down from 93.0% last week.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, the price is correcting but still holding above the resistance line of the descending channel, currently bounded between 0.8070 and 0.7820.
Technical Indicators
Indicators have turned upward, signaling fresh buy momentum, though not yet strongly confirmed: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator have crossed the signal line from below, while the AO histogram remains above the zero level.
Resistance Levels:
0.8130, 0.8320
Support Levels:
0.8000, 0.7870
Trading Scenarios
Main scenario: Long positions are relevant if the price consolidates above 0.8130, targeting 0.8320 with stop-loss at 0.8060. Implementation horizon: 7+ days.
Alternative scenario: Short positions are relevant if the price consolidates below 0.8000, targeting 0.7870 with stop-loss at 0.8070.
Key Levels
0.7870, 0.8000, 0.8130, 0.8320