Negotiations between senior U.S., Russian, EU, and Ukrainian officials have raised investor hopes for a diplomatic resolution of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, although no clear deal parameters have been disclosed yet. Still, many experts do not rule out a trilateral summit involving U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, at which the main contentious issues could be resolved. Such an outcome would likely pave the way for partial or full lifting of sanctions on Russian energy exports. This, in turn, would increase global supply at a time when the market is already facing higher volumes following OPEC+’s decision to raise production by another 580K barrels per day in August. The prospect of additional supply weighs heavily on crude prices.
In parallel, investors are concerned about weakening U.S. and Chinese economic growth amid trade conflicts, which could lead to reduced energy demand from the two largest global consumers. Furthermore, given the potential acceleration of inflation as a result of export tariffs, the U.S. Federal Reserve may maintain a wait-and-see approach, which supports the U.S. dollar against commodities and adds further pressure to crude oil.
Overall, the fundamental backdrop currently favors continued downside in WTI crude oil in the near term.
Support and Resistance Levels
The instrument is attempting to consolidate below 62.50 (Murray [4/8]), which would open the way lower toward 59.38 (Murray [3/8]) and 56.25 (Murray [2/8]). On the other hand, a consolidation above the middle Bollinger Band at 64.80 could trigger a corrective move higher toward 68.75 (Murray [6/8]) and 71.88 (Murray [7/8]).
Technical Indicators
Indicators confirm the likelihood of further downside: Bollinger Bands are turning lower, Stochastic is also pointing downward, while the MACD histogram is expanding in the negative zone.
Resistance Levels:
64.80, 68.75, 71.88
Support Levels:
62.50, 59.38, 56.25
Trading Scenarios
Main scenario: Short positions can be opened from 61.80, with targets at 59.38 and 56.25, and stop-loss at 64.50. Implementation horizon: 5–7 days.
Alternative scenario: Long positions can be considered above 64.80, targeting 68.75 and 71.88, with stop-loss at 62.70. Implementation horizon: 5–7 days.
Key Levels
56.25, 59.38, 62.50, 64.80, 68.75, 71.88