Experts are assessing the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index report, which showed annual inflation accelerating from 2.9% to 3.0% in September, slightly below forecasts of 3.1%, and monthly inflation easing from 0.4% to 0.3% (vs. expectations of no change). Core inflation slowed from 3.1% to 3.0% year-over-year and from 0.3% to 0.2% month-over-month, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s dovish outlook.

In Canada, primary housing market data indicated that new home prices fell slightly, with the index moving from –1.7% to –1.8% year-over-year and from –0.3% to –0.2% month-over-month, in line with expectations.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are turning downward, with a slight expansion of the price range that limits downside potential in the very short term. MACD is declining, maintaining a sell signal as the histogram remains below the signal line, while the Stochastic oscillator shows oversold risks for the U.S. dollar.

Resistance levels: 1.4020, 1.4050, 1.4079, 1.4100.

Support levels: 1.3981, 1.3958, 1.3930, 1.3889.

USD/CAD chart

Trading Scenarios and USD/CAD Forecast

Short positions may be considered after a breakout below 1.3981 with a target at 1.3930. Stop-loss: 1.4000. Expected duration: 2–3 days.

Long positions could be opened after a rebound from 1.3981 and a breakout above 1.4020, targeting 1.4079. Stop-loss: 1.3990.

Scenario

Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3980
Take Profit 1.3930
Stop Loss 1.4000
Key Levels 1.3889, 1.3930, 1.3958, 1.3981, 1.4020, 1.4050, 1.4079, 1.4100

Alternative Scenario

Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.4025
Take Profit 1.4079
Stop Loss 1.3990
Key Levels 1.3889, 1.3930, 1.3958, 1.3981, 1.4020, 1.4050, 1.4079, 1.4100