USD/CHF Dips Below 0.8000 Ahead of Swiss PPI and U.S. Shutdown Resolution

In Switzerland, producer price inflation data will be released on Thursday at 09:30 (GMT+2). Forecasts suggest the Producer Price Index (PPI) will accelerate from –0.2% to 0.1% month-over-month, while the annual reading is expected to remain at –1.8%. The Swiss National Bank’s key interest rate currently stands at 0%, though the regulator has not ruled out the possibility of negative borrowing costs.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and Switzerland could reach a trade agreement in the coming weeks to reduce the 39% import tariffs imposed by Trump in August. According to media reports citing sources close to the talks, tariffs on Swiss goods may be lowered to 15%, matching the rate applied to the EU. Switzerland’s main exports include watches, jewelry, machinery, chocolate, electronics, and chemical and pharmaceutical products. Shares of companies in these sectors rose sharply on the news of potential tariff relief: The Swatch Group Ltd. (brands Omega, Tissot, Longines) gained 4.2% in early trading, while Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (Cartier, IWC, Piaget) rose 2.0%. According to the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office, the trade deficit with Switzerland totaled $38.5 billion last year, while the Swiss government noted that bilateral trade remains “relatively balanced.”

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are trending upward while the price range is narrowing, reflecting a sharp short-term trend shift. The MACD indicator has formed a sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line) and is approaching the zero level. The Stochastic indicator has nearly reached oversold territory, indicating a potential risk of a short-term rebound in the U.S. dollar.

Resistance levels: 0.8013, 0.8050, 0.8075, 0.8100.

Support levels: 0.7985, 0.7950, 0.7909, 0.7871.

Trading scenarios and USD/CHF forecast

Long positions may be opened after a breakout above 0.8013 with a target at 0.8075. Stop-loss — 0.7980. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from 0.8013 and a breakdown below 0.7985 with a target at 0.7909. Stop-loss — 0.8013.