USD/CHF Forecast: Consolidation Near 0.7920, SNB Meeting in Focus

The U.S. central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which could signal the start of a broader dovish cycle: at least two more 25 bps adjustments are expected before year-end. It is worth noting that non-farm payrolls for the 12 months through March were revised down by –911,000, and if the labor market cools further, more aggressive easing may follow.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will hold its meeting on Thursday at 09:30 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the regulator is unlikely to adjust its current policy, but traders will focus on official comments regarding the outlook. Previously, the SNB cut rates by 25 bps in summer amid slowing inflation, though in August it rebounded to 0.2%, while core CPI eased from 0.8% to 0.7%.

In the U.S., S&P Global PMI data will be published at 15:45 (GMT+2): the manufacturing index is expected to fall from 53.0 to 52.0, and services from 54.5 to 53.9. Later, at 18:35 (GMT+2), markets will watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are slightly downward-sloping as the price range narrows, reflecting mixed short-term sentiment. MACD is rising above the signal line, maintaining a weak buy signal, while Stochastic is approaching 80, pointing to risks of overbought conditions for the dollar in the very near term.

Resistance levels: 0.7948, 0.7972, 0.8000, 0.8050.

Support levels: 0.7909, 0.7871, 0.7828, 0.7750.

Trading scenarios and USD/CHF forecast

Short positions may be opened after a breakout below 0.7909, targeting 0.7828. Stop-loss at 0.7948. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Long positions may be considered if the pair rebounds from 0.7909 and breaks above 0.7948, targeting 0.8050. Stop-loss at 0.7909.