USD/CHF Forecast: Dollar Holds Steady Amid U.S. Shutdown and Weak Labor Data

With the September Nonfarm Payrolls report postponed, traders are analyzing private-sector employment data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP). The latest reading showed a decrease from –3K to –32K against expectations of 54K growth, while August data were revised from 54K to –3K. Such weakness adds pressure on the Federal Reserve to further ease monetary policy — analysts anticipate at least two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each by year-end. Meanwhile, the U.S. ISM Services PMI dropped from 52.0 to 50.0, below the forecast of 51.7, signaling a slowdown in business activity.

In Switzerland, the unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) held steady at 2.9% in September, in line with expectations. The Consumer Price Index remained flat at 0.2% y/y, missing projections of 0.3%, while the monthly CPI declined from –0.1% to –2.0%. Persistently low inflation gives the Swiss National Bank room to adopt negative borrowing rates. Although policymakers refrained from doing so at the last meeting, some analysts expect such a move in December.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands show a mild upward slope while narrowing, indicating mixed short-term sentiment. The MACD maintains a weak buy signal with the histogram above the signal line, while the Stochastic indicator moves sideways near the mid-range. Traders are advised to wait for clearer confirmation signals before entering new positions.

Resistance levels: 0.8000, 0.8050, 0.8100, 0.8150.

Support levels: 0.7946, 0.7909, 0.7871, 0.7828.

Trading Scenarios and USD/CHF Forecast

Short positions can be opened after a confident breakout below 0.7946 with a target at 0.7828. Stop-loss — 0.8000. Implementation time: 2–3 days.

Long positions can be considered after a breakout above 0.8000 with a target at 0.8100. Stop-loss — 0.7946.