Swiss officials earlier reaffirmed that they would not allow further strengthening of the franc. Following the introduction of 39.0% U.S. trade tariffs, the SNB appears to have intervened to stabilize the exchange rate. September balance sheet data suggest a possible CHF 7.0 billion intervention after the USD/CHF pair touched its 0.7800 low. With the policy rate still at zero — limiting traditional tools of currency control — the central bank continues to rely on direct market intervention, which analysts believe has already been used at least three times since spring.

The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is holding around 98.60, under pressure from President Donald Trump’s latest announcement of potential 100% tariffs on Chinese goods in response to Beijing’s stricter export controls on rare earth metals. Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to weigh on sentiment. However, many analysts expect the situation to be resolved this week, as the government must resume operations to fund military salaries due on October 15. Optimism over a possible resolution is limiting demand for the U.S. dollar, suggesting that the current uptrend may pause.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, USD/CHF is correcting below the resistance line of a descending channel with dynamic boundaries between 0.8100 and 0.7800.

Technical indicators are slowing their buy signals: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line from above, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is forming ascending green bars in positive territory, signaling reduced bullish momentum.

Resistance levels: 0.8060, 0.8240.
Support levels: 0.7950, 0.7830.

USD/CHF Chart

USD/CHF Trading Scenarios and Outlook

Long positions can be opened after the price consolidates above 0.8060 with a target at 0.8240 and a stop loss at 0.8000. Duration: 7 days or more.

Short positions can be considered after the price consolidates below 0.7950 with a target at 0.7830 and a stop loss at 0.8020.

Scenario

Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.8065
Take Profit 0.8240
Stop Loss 0.8000
Key Levels 0.7830, 0.7950, 0.8060, 0.8240

Alternative Scenario

Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.7945
Take Profit 0.7830
Stop Loss 0.8020
Key Levels 0.7830, 0.7950, 0.8060, 0.8240