At 14:30 (GMT+2) today, July U.S. CPI data will be released. Markets expect annual inflation to rise from 2.7% to 2.8%, with core CPI increasing from 2.9% to 3.0%. If confirmed, this would reinforce inflationary pressure stemming from higher tariffs, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve maintains its current policy stance. However, most analysts still believe the Trump administration will push the Fed to deliver at least one rate cut before year-end.
From the Swiss National Bank (SNB), investors expect continued dovish rhetoric and the possibility of a rate cut into negative territory — potentially as soon as the September meeting — given that Swiss inflation remains very low, with July’s annual CPI rising only from 0.1% to 0.2%.
Overall, the fundamental backdrop favors continued upward momentum in the near term.
Support and Resistance Levels
The pair is testing 0.8118 (Murray [5/8]); a confirmed breakout would open the way to 0.8240 (Murray [7/8]) and 0.8301 (Murray [8/8]).
For bears, the key level is the middle Bollinger Band at 0.8035. A break below would signal a potential move toward 0.7935 (Murray [2/8]) and 0.7874 (Murray [1/8]), though this scenario currently appears less likely.
Resistance: 0.8118, 0.8240, 0.8301
Support: 0.8035, 0.7935, 0.7874
Technical Indicators
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Bollinger Bands: Rising
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Stochastic: Pointing higher
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MACD: Growing in positive territory
Trading Scenarios
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Entry: 0.8120
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Take Profit: 0.8240, 0.8301
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Stop Loss: 0.8060
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Timeframe: 5–7 days
Primary Scenario – Buy Stop:
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Entry: 0.8030
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Take Profit: 0.7935, 0.7874
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Stop Loss: 0.8100
Alternative Scenario – Sell Stop:
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Key Levels: 0.7874, 0.7935, 0.8035, 0.8118, 0.8240, 0.8301