After two rounds of voting, 64-year-old Sanae Takaichi became the party’s new leader — the first woman ever to hold the position. Following parliamentary approval on October 15, she will officially take office as Japan’s Prime Minister. Economically, Takaichi is expected to support tax cuts and expand direct aid programs for citizens, as well as initiate reforms to strengthen the military amid rising geopolitical tensions. Analysts believe that while she may face challenges advancing economic reforms without securing a coalition partner, her pro-fiscal stance signals that Japan will likely boost government spending, with the Liberal Democratic Party prepared for broader compromises with opposition forces.
Meanwhile, the yen received moderate support from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech last Friday. Ueda reiterated that the central bank may continue tightening monetary policy if economic conditions align with expectations — particularly regarding inflation trends. Addressing import tariffs, he acknowledged their negative impact on exporters’ profits but rejected claims of deeper structural damage to the economy. On the same day, labor market data showed Japan’s unemployment rate rising sharply from 2.3% to 2.6% in August, exceeding the forecast of 2.4%.
U.S. investors, in turn, remain focused on the ongoing government shutdown. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett warned that the longer negotiations between Democrats and Republicans drag on, the higher the likelihood that President Donald Trump will resort to large-scale layoffs of federal employees.
Support and Resistance Levels
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a moderate upward expansion, with the price range widening but lagging behind the bullish momentum. MACD has turned sharply upward, forming a fresh buy signal as the histogram moves above the signal line and approaches the zero mark. The Stochastic indicator mirrors this trend, staying near the mid-range of its working area.
Resistance levels: 150.50, 150.93, 151.50, 152.53.
Support levels: 150.00, 149.50, 148.91, 148.00.
Trading Scenarios and USD/JPY Forecast
Long positions may be opened after a confident breakout above 150.50 with a target at 152.53. Stop-loss — 149.50. Estimated implementation time: 2–3 days.
A rebound from 150.50 as resistance followed by a breakdown below 149.50 could signal the opening of new short positions targeting 148.00. Stop-loss — 150.50.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Intraday |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 150.50 |
| Take Profit | 152.53 |
| Stop Loss | 149.50 |
| Key Levels | 148.00, 148.91, 150.00, 150.50, 150.93, 151.50, 152.53 |
Alternative Scenario
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 149.50 |
| Take Profit | 148.00 |
| Stop Loss | 150.50 |
| Key Levels | 148.00, 148.91, 150.00, 150.50, 150.93, 151.50, 152.53 |