For U.S. investors, today’s focus is on August inflation data due at 14:30 (GMT+2). Forecasts call for core CPI to hold at 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, while the broader index is seen at 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y. Later, at 20:00 (GMT+2), the U.S. budget report will be released, with analysts projecting a modest narrowing of the deficit from –$291 billion to –$281 billion. Traders are also digesting yesterday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. PPI report: the core index slowed from 3.4% to 2.8% y/y (vs. 3.5% forecast), and the headline PPI eased from 3.1% to 2.6% (vs. 3.3% expected). On a monthly basis, PPI fell by 0.1% after a 0.7% gain in July. Bank of America analysts now expect the Fed to cut rates in September and again in December, revising their earlier forecast of no change until the second half of 2026.

Meanwhile, political developments in Japan remain in the spotlight. The upcoming resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has triggered a leadership contest within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party ahead of next month’s elections. According to a Reuters survey, 68 economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates by at least 25 bps in Q4, down from nearly two-thirds in August. The median year-end borrowing cost forecast remains at 0.75%. Additionally, 76% of respondents do not expect wage negotiations next spring to exceed this year’s 5.25% increase, instead pointing to 4.80%.

Support and Resistance Levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are flat, with the range widening from below, signaling downside risks. MACD is trending lower, maintaining a weak sell signal (histogram below the signal line), while the indicator attempts to settle below zero. Stochastic is ticking higher from oversold levels, suggesting short-term risks of dollar weakness may be easing.

USD/JPY

  • Resistance levels: 147.50, 148.00, 148.77, 149.50

  • Support levels: 146.56, 146.00, 145.00, 144.00

Trading Scenarios

  • Buy Stop: Longs above 148.00 with targets at 149.50. Stop-loss: 147.20. Horizon: 2–3 days.

  • Sell Stop: Shorts below 146.56 with targets at 145.00. Stop-loss: 147.50.

Scenario (Intraday)

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry Point: 148.00

  • Take Profit: 149.50

  • Stop Loss: 147.20

  • Key Levels: 144.00, 145.00, 146.00, 146.56, 147.50, 148.00, 148.77, 149.50

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry Point: 146.55

  • Take Profit: 145.00

  • Stop Loss: 147.50

  • Key Levels: 144.00, 145.00, 146.00, 146.56, 147.50, 148.00, 148.77, 149.50