The U.S. economy added just 22k nonfarm payrolls versus expectations of 75k (79k prior, revised from 73k). Average hourly earnings slowed from 3.9% y/y to 3.7% y/y, while unemployment ticked higher from 4.2% to 4.3%. Later today at 16:00 (GMT+2), revised employment data through March will be published, with preliminary estimates hinting at downward corrections that could further weigh on the dollar and strengthen the dovish case
Meanwhile, the yen drew support from upbeat Japanesсe macro data. Q2 GDP growth accelerated from 0.3% to 0.5% q/q (2.2% annualized), above earlier estimates. August bank lending also rose from 3.2% to 3.6% y/y. Still, political uncertainty weighs after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation following the LDP’s poor showing in the July 20 elections. Investors are weighing the potential impact of leadership change on monetary policy. At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a decree lowering tariffs on Japanese auto exports to 15%, providing relief for Japan’s trade outlook.
Support and resistance levels
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Resistance: 147.40, 148.00, 148.77, 149.50
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Support: 146.56, 146.00, 145.00, 144.00
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are flat, with the upper band narrowing slightly, limiting short-term downside momentum. MACD remains below the signal line, holding a sell bias, while Stochastic is nearing the 20 zone, highlighting oversold risks for the U.S. dollar in the very short term.
Trading scenarios
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SELL STOP: Entry 146.55, TP 145.00, SL 147.40 (2–3 days)
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BUY STOP: Entry 147.45, TP 148.77, SL 146.56
Key levels: 144.00, 145.00, 146.00, 146.56, 147.40, 148.00, 148.77, 149.50