USD/JPY Near 153.5 as Yen Stabilizes and U.S. Dollar Retains Momentum

In October, new orders and raw material purchases in Japan’s manufacturing sector continued to decline as companies relied on existing inventories. However, job creation persisted, which kept the manufacturing PMI nearly unchanged — slipping slightly from 48.3 to 48.2. Tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+2), the services PMI will be released, expected to remain stable at 52.4, while the composite index is forecast at 50.9. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that the government is monitoring currency movements closely, noting potential speculative influence — a comment often seen as a warning of possible intervention to stabilize the yen.

The U.S. dollar index (USDX) holds near 99.90 amid the fifth week of the government shutdown, which continues to delay official economic data. Still, at 15:15 (GMT+2), ADP will publish its nonfarm employment report, with analysts expecting a 32,000 job gain following last month’s decline. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December Fed rate cut to 3.50–3.75% now stands at 74.1%.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the pair is correcting within an upward trend, approaching the upper boundary of the channel between 155.50 and 148.50.

Technical indicators maintain a bullish bias: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator remain above the signal line, while the AO histogram shows correction bars in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 154.40, 157.00.

Support levels: 152.60, 149.80.

USD/JPY Trading Scenarios and Outlook

Long positions may be opened after a breakout and consolidation above 154.40, targeting 157.00, with a stop-loss at 153.00. Estimated duration: 7+ days.

Short positions may be opened after a decline and consolidation below 152.60, targeting 149.80, with a stop-loss at 154.00.