USD/JPY Rises Toward 153.23 as Japan’s Trade Deficit Widens

Meanwhile, due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, no new official statistics are being released, and investors are relying on available information regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the October 29 meeting — a scenario already priced into the U.S. dollar. On Friday at 14:30 (GMT+2), traders will focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI): the headline indicator is expected to accelerate from 2.9% to 3.1% year-over-year, while the core CPI is projected to remain stable at 3.1%, lending partial support to the greenback.

Support and Resistance Levels

The long-term trend remains bullish. Last week, during a correction, the price retested the previously broken 150.20 level and resumed growth, targeting 153.23, 154.80, and 158.88, with the key support shifting toward 146.22.

The medium-term trend also stays upward. In October, the pair reached zone 2 (152.14–151.59), then pulled back and resumed growth this week. After consolidating above this zone, long positions targeting zone 3 (157.46–156.92) become relevant. Otherwise, a medium-term correction toward the support area of 148.18–147.70 remains possible.

Resistance levels: 153.23, 154.80, 158.88.

Support levels: 150.20, 148.48, 146.22.

Trading Scenarios and USD/JPY Forecast

Long positions may be opened from 150.20 with a target at 153.23 and a stop-loss at 149.25. Estimated duration: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 149.25 with a target at 146.22 and a stop-loss at 150.32.