USD/JPY Rises Toward February High as Fed Signals Hawkish Pause

Today, however, the pair partially corrected lower to around 153.45 following comments from Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama regarding the current state of the currency market. She confirmed that the government is closely monitoring yen movements, noting that recent volatility may be driven by speculative activity. Such remarks are often interpreted by markets as a warning of possible currency interventions aimed at stabilizing the yen. The downside correction, however, remains limited due to weak manufacturing data from October: the index fell to 48.2 — its lowest in 19 months — amid declining export orders and higher U.S. trade tariffs. This raises concerns about an economic slowdown in Japan and lowers the likelihood of any near-term rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

Support and Resistance Levels

The pair continues to trade within a long-term ascending channel. The price is currently near 154.69 (Murray level [7/8]); a breakout above this level could open the way toward 156.25 (Murray [8/8]) and 157.81 (Murray [+1/8]). On the downside, the key bearish level lies at 151.45 (Murray [5/8], Fibonacci 61.8%), below the midline of the Bollinger Bands. A sustained break below it could extend the decline toward 147.60 (Fibonacci 38.2%) and 145.31 (Murray [1/8]).

Technical indicators show mixed signals: Bollinger Bands are turning upward, MACD is expanding in positive territory, but the Stochastic oscillator has entered the overbought zone, suggesting a potential pullback.

Resistance levels: 154.69, 156.25, 157.81.

Support levels: 151.45, 147.60, 145.31.

Trading Scenarios and USD/JPY Forecast

Long positions may be opened above 154.69 with targets at 156.25 and 157.81, and a stop-loss at 153.45. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions may be opened below 151.45 with targets at 147.60 and 145.31, and a stop-loss at 153.60.