USD/JPY Stuck in 148.44–146.88 Range Amid BoJ Policy Uncertainty

In Q2, GDP came in at 0.5% versus forecasts of 0.3%, while August’s core CPI remained well above target at 2.7% y/y. Last week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that future rate decisions will depend on U.S. trade tariffs, as exports have contracted for four consecutive months (–0.1% in August), with industrial production falling –1.2% in July. Most analysts still expect the BoJ to eventually shift to a hawkish stance to support households amid accelerating inflation, though the timing remains unclear.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25%, with further easing possible. However, analysts believe the pace of cuts will be gradual due to persistently high inflation levels.

Support and Resistance Levels

A decisive move is likely once USD/JPY breaks out of the 148.44–146.88 range: consolidation above 148.44 could fuel growth toward 150.00 (Murray [8/8]) and 151.56 (Murray [+2/8], 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). A break below 146.88, however, may trigger a shift out of the long-term uptrend toward 145.00 (23.6% Fibonacci) and 143.75 (Murray [0/8]).

Technical indicators are mixed: Bollinger Bands are flat, MACD hovers near the zero line with low volume, and Stochastic is turning down from overbought levels.

Resistance levels: 148.44, 150.00, 151.56.

Support levels: 146.88, 145.00, 143.75.

Trading Scenarios and USD/JPY Forecast

Short positions may be opened below 146.88 with targets at 145.00 and 143.75, and a stop-loss at 148.00. Implementation timeframe: 5–7 days.

Long positions may be opened above 148.44 with targets at 150.00 and 151.56, and a stop-loss at 147.20.