Investors took note of fresh signals that the Bank of Japan remains highly attentive to the Federal Reserve’s rate path. In an interview with Bloomberg, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Fed has fallen “behind the curve” in its inflation fight and needs to adjust rates soon. That view contrasts with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s stance that the bank stands ready to act decisively only if macro data confirm renewed price pressures. Following the US remarks, markets lifted the odds of a BoJ rate increase in September, a shift echoed by preliminary Q2 GDP estimates pointing to a return to growth: +0.1% q/q after flat prior, and an acceleration to +0.4% y/y from –0.2%.
At the same time, July Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) data printed as expected at +0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y (down from 2.9% but still above the 2.0% target). Despite the overall deceleration, food and agricultural prices remain elevated, squeezing households and reinforcing the case for the BoJ’s cautious hawkish tone.
On the US side, the dollar’s soft patch persists, with USDX hovering near 97.50. Fed officials continue to face political heat from the White House. Secretary Bessent called for a series of rate cuts, proposing a –50 bp move in September as a starting point. However, CME FedWatch shows a 94.8% probability of a –25 bp cut and just 5.2% for –50 bp.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, price continues to correct within the broader uptrend, attempting another approach to the ascending channel support (boundaries 152.00–144.00).
Technical signals are fading from an already slowing buy bias: the Alligator’s fast EMAs are converging toward the signal line, while the AO histogram, still above the zero line, is printing new down bars.
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Support: 145.40, 142.40
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Resistance: 148.10, 150.80
Trading scenarios
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Shorts: A continued decline and a daily close below 145.40 keeps sell setups in play toward 142.40. Stop-loss: 146.50. Horizon: 7+ days.
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Longs: A break of resistance and sustained trade above 148.10 activates buy setups toward 150.80. Stop-loss: 147.00.
Scenario
Timeframe: Weekly
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry: 145.40
Take Profit: 142.40
Stop Loss: 146.50
Key levels: 142.40, 145.40, 148.10, 150.80
Alternative scenario
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry: 148.10
Take Profit: 150.80
Stop Loss: 147.00
Key levels: 142.40, 145.40, 148.10, 150.80