According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, there is more than an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75%.
Investors will also focus on remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who may either signal the possibility of further monetary easing or reiterate a cautious stance grounded in macroeconomic data and inflation risks.
The release of the US Department of Labor report was delayed for two weeks due to the shutdown. Market attention today at 15:30 (GMT+2) will shift to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Forecasts suggest that the core indicator will rise 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, while the broader index may increase 0.3% month-over-month and from 2.7% to 2.8% year-over-year, signaling a slight increase in inflationary pressure.
In addition, data on personal income and spending for September will be released, both expected at 0.4%. At 17:00 (GMT+2), the University of Michigan will publish its December statistics on inflation expectations and the Consumer Sentiment Index, which may rise from 51.0 to 52.0 points.
Meanwhile, the White House is moving closer to announcing its nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair. Analysts consider National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett the most likely candidate. Further uncertainty emerged after scheduled meetings between finalists and top officials, including President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance, were canceled. Despite criticism directed at current Fed leadership, the White House insists that any projections remain preliminary until an official announcement is made and that the selection process is still underway.
Support and Resistance Levels
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a hesitant decline, with the price range expanding downward and paving the way for new local lows. MACD is falling, sustaining a strong sell signal (the histogram remains below the signal line). At the same time, the indicator is holding confidently below the zero threshold. Stochastic also shows bearish movement but is approaching oversold territory, implying potential short-term rebound risks.
Resistance levels: 99.00, 99.27, 99.50, 99.71.
Support levels: 98.68, 98.28, 97.98, 97.72.
USDX Trading Scenarios and Forecast
Short positions may be opened after a confident breakdown below 98.68 with a target of 97.98. Stop-loss — 99.00. Estimated timeframe: 2–3 days.
A rebound from the 98.68 support level followed by a breakout above 99.00 may serve as a signal to open new long positions with a target of 99.71. Stop-loss — 98.68.