Volkswagen AG Shares Hold Above 102.00 as EU Tariff Relief Supports Outlook

After two years of negotiations over easing tariffs on vehicles assembled in China and supplied to the EU market, the company has made significant progress. Last week, the European Commission approved an adjustment to duties for the electric Cupra Tavascan SUV, marking the first such case in history and potentially encouraging other brands to seek similar relief. As a result, the model will be exempt from the 20.7% import duty as well as the 10% base levy on Chinese goods, significantly reducing the overall fiscal burden and improving price competitiveness. These privileges allow the company to optimize its cost structure and preserve margins without materially revising end-user pricing. Management noted that the agreement includes a minimum pricing mechanism and a defined quota for supply volumes under the preferential regime, aligning with the interests of Volkswagen AG by ensuring predictable access conditions to the European market, lowering regulatory risks, and enabling medium-term planning of production and logistics flows. In a broader context, the decision can be seen as a compromise by Brussels aimed at balancing support for European manufacturers with the need to maintain competition in the sector.

The fourth-quarter financial report is scheduled for release on March 10. According to preliminary estimates, revenue declined year-on-year from €87.38 billion to €85.46 billion, while earnings per share rebounded into positive territory at €5.99 after a loss of €–0.96 in the previous quarter, compared with €6.25 a year earlier. Annual dividend payments amounted to €6.30 per share versus €9.00 in 2024; however, dividend yield next year could reach 6.0–7.0%, in line with the sector median of 4.64%.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, the instrument is attempting to break above the resistance line of a descending channel with dynamic boundaries at 105.50–98.00.

Technical indicators are slowing their buy signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain above the signal line but are converging toward it, while the AO histogram is forming corrective bars in positive territory.

Resistance levels: 105.70, 113.80.

Support levels: 98.70, 90.00.

Trading scenarios and Volkswagen AG share price outlook

Long positions may be opened after a breakout and consolidation above the 105.70 level, with a target at 113.80 and a stop-loss at 102.00. Time horizon: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after a decline and consolidation below the 98.70 level, with a target at 90.00. Stop-loss: 102.00.