Increased trading activity continues amid the escalation of the Middle East conflict: after yesterday’s mutual attacks stopped, President Donald Trump reported overnight strikes on targets in southern Iran, during which the U.S. fleet attempted to advance near the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the Islamic Republic launched missiles at bases in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, announcing the destruction of aircraft. Against this background, the dollar, as a safe-haven asset, is moving toward the 100.00 mark in the USDX.
Eurozone
The euro is strengthening against the pound, the dollar, and the yen.
The single currency maintains a neutral tone amid expectations of tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank in July, which will soon begin to affect the exchange rate in the long term. Today’s decision to raise interest rates was unanimous, and although this was the first adjustment in the past three years, it had already been priced into quotes. The deposit rate increased from 2.00% to 2.25%, while the key borrowing cost rose to 2.40%.
United Kingdom
The pound is weakening against the yen and the euro but rising against the U.S. dollar.
The Bank of England still does not intend to adjust monetary policy at its next meeting, as forecasts for key macroeconomic indicators point to the stability of the national economy amid rising global inflation. Tomorrow at 08:00 (GMT+2), April gross domestic product (GDP) data will be published: according to preliminary estimates, the indicator increased from 1.2% to 1.3%. Experts believe that industrial production has adapted to current fuel shortage conditions, and its volume may rise to 0.1% month-on-month and slightly slow to –0.1% year-on-year.
Japan
The yen is weakening against the euro, rising against the pound, and showing mixed dynamics against the U.S. dollar.
Quotes are fixed very close to the annual low of 160.50: last month, the Bank of Japan repeatedly hinted that it was ready to intervene in the market situation at any moment if the national currency continued to depreciate rapidly. However, analysts now suggest that officials will refrain from countermeasures until next week’s monetary policy meeting, where the interest rate is highly likely to be raised by 25 basis points. Experts believe that a shift toward hawkish rhetoric will support the yen, reducing the need for interventions.
Australia
The Australian dollar is declining against the euro, the U.S. currency, and the pound but strengthening against the yen.
Quotes may end the week in the red, as the construction market is showing signs of cooling: the total value of residential homes increased by 315.9 billion Australian dollars, or 2.5%, reaching 12.8 trillion Australian dollars in the first quarter. According to Mish Tan, Head of Finance and Wealth at the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), property price growth slowed in the first quarter after a significant increase at the end of 2025, although the total value of the country’s residential housing stock rose by 11.9% year-on-year, supporting the national economy. Regionally, the strongest price increase was recorded in Western Australia at 7.2%, while homes in Victoria fell by 0.3%.
Oil
Oil quotes are slowly declining, trading around 91.00 and reacting only weakly to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, where the United States and Iran exchanged a series of attacks that exceeded most previous incidents in strength and duration: strikes on targets in the south of the Islamic Republic continued almost all night, and during this time several clashes between military vessels occurred near the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missiles at enemy bases in Israel, Kuwait, and Bahrain and announced a complete blockade of shipping through the waters. Meanwhile, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), fuel reserves fell by 7.227 million barrels over the week, continuing the trend seen since late April.
