USD/TRY Forecast: Lira Under Pressure as Inflation Outlook Worsens

According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), annual inflation accelerated to 32.61% in May from 32.37% a month earlier. At the same time, estimates from the independent research group ENAG differ substantially from the official figures: its calculations showed monthly inflation at 2.16% and annual inflation at 53.13%, underlining the complexity of the macroeconomic situation. Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs expects tight monetary conditions to remain in place in an effort to limit dollarisation, stabilise inflation expectations, and support confidence in the national currency.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has announced plans to significantly expand economic cooperation with Turkey. Trade Minister Chris Bryant said that current annual bilateral trade amounts to around GBP 28.0 billion, while both sides aim to double this figure in the medium term. According to him, Turkey and the United Kingdom are not only NATO allies but also important economic partners with substantial potential to deepen cooperation. Among the key advantages, the minister highlighted the developed defence-industrial complexes of both countries, as well as broad opportunities for cooperation in industry, infrastructure, and high technology. At the same time, London sees the services sector as one of the most promising areas for further expanding bilateral ties, particularly in education, design, advertising, digital technology, consulting, and other high value-added professional services. Bryant noted that these issues are being discussed with Turkish Trade Minister Ömer Bolat and Deputy Trade Minister Mustafa Tuzcu. In his view, traditional free trade agreements have historically focused mainly on goods trade, while the modern global economy requires a broader approach that takes into account the growing role of technology, digital services, creative industries, and the knowledge economy. Under these conditions, cooperation in high-tech and service sectors could become one of the key drivers of further growth in economic ties between the partners.

Meanwhile, May data from the US housing market were generally weak: the number of building permits issued declined from 1.423 million to 1.419 million, compared with forecasts of 1.413 million, while new home sales fell from 626.0 thousand to 580.0 thousand instead of the expected 638.0 thousand. Nevertheless, the sector remains stable despite the economic crisis. Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged investors to stop forecasting Federal Reserve actions based on “dot plot models,” arguing that they are often inaccurate. The official was likely trying to calm market participants expecting monetary tightening in September after eight of nineteen members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) warned at the previous meeting that interest rates could be raised this year.

Support and resistance levels

Technically, the instrument remains within a long-term upward trend and is attempting to consolidate above 46.4843 (Murray level [7/8]). If successful, the upward movement may strengthen toward 46.8750 (Murray level [8/8]), 47.2656 (Murray level [+1/8]), and 47.6562 (Murray level [+2/8]). If the price breaks below 46.0937 (Murray level [6/8]), reinforced by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, a correction toward 45.3125 (Murray level [4/8]) and 44.9218 (Murray level [3/8]) cannot be ruled out, although it is unlikely to lead to a change in the current trend.

Technical indicators confirm the likelihood of further growth: the Bollinger Bands are directed upward, the MACD histogram is expanding in positive territory, and the Stochastic is in the overbought zone but turning upward.

Resistance levels: 46.8750, 47.2656, 47.6562.

Support levels: 46.0937, 45.3125, 44.9218.

Trading scenarios and USD/TRY forecast

Long positions may be opened at the current price, with targets at 46.8750, 47.2656, and 47.6562, and a stop-loss at 46.4845. Expected implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions may be opened below 46.0937, with targets at 45.3125 and 44.9218, and a stop-loss at 46.3880.