Leading analysts are revising their outlook on the stock following CEO Shantanu Narayen’s announcement that he will step down after 18 years in the role. He will remain Chairman of the Board, while a special committee led by lead independent director Frank Calderoni has been formed to oversee the search for a new CEO. The committee is expected to evaluate both internal and external candidates to ensure a structured and transparent selection process. Following the announcement, the stock dropped by –11.7% to 249.0$, and Argus Media downgraded its rating from “buy” to “hold.” Deutsche Bank cut its price target from 350.0$ to 310.0$, while UBS lowered its target to 290.0$, maintaining a “neutral” rating, citing strong revenue growth driven by elevated demand for software earlier this year. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its “sell” rating with a target price of 220.0$.
The company reported its fourth-quarter results on March 12. Revenue reached 6.4 billion$, up from 6.19 billion$ in the previous quarter and 5.66 billion$ a year earlier. Earnings per share came in at 6.06$, compared to 5.50$ and 4.97$, respectively. However, a key factor limiting new investor inflows remains the absence of dividend payments, which Adobe has not issued since 2005. Despite consistently strong EPS above 5.00$, management has shown no intention of reinstating dividends.
Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart, the instrument continues to move within a descending channel with dynamic boundaries at 295.00–215.00.
Technical indicators reinforce the bearish signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain below the signal line, while the AO histogram is forming corrective bars in negative territory.
Resistance levels: 269.00, 312.00.
Support levels: 238.00, 200.00.
Trading scenarios and Adobe stock forecast
Short positions may be considered after a decline and consolidation below 238.00 with a target at 200.00. Stop-loss: 250.00. Timeframe: 7 days or more.
Long positions may be considered after a move higher and consolidation above 269.00 with a target at 312.00. Stop-loss: 255.00.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry point | 237.95 |
| Take Profit | 200.00 |
| Stop Loss | 250.00 |
| Key levels | 200.00, 238.00, 269.00, 312.00 |
Alternative scenario
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry point | 269.05 |
| Take Profit | 312.00 |
| Stop Loss | 255.00 |
| Key levels | 200.00, 238.00, 269.00, 312.00 |
