DAX 40 Forecast: Index Struggles at 24050 as German Economy Faces Headwinds

Among today's key events, April inflation data is due at 08:00 GMT. Forecasts suggest the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) will adjust from 2.8% to 3.0% year-on-year — adding pressure on European Central Bank (ECB) officials regarding further monetary policy adjustments — while the monthly reading is expected to ease from 1.2% to 0.7%, as the most severe scenarios surrounding the Middle East conflict have so far not materialised. At 09:00 GMT, the focus will shift to EU-wide reports: the industrial sentiment index is expected to deepen its negative reading from –7.0 to –7.2 points, while the composite consumer and business confidence gauge is seen falling from 96.6 to 95.3 points and the services expectations indicator from 4.9 to 3.5 points. The consumer confidence index, based on a survey of 2,300 households, is expected to hold near 20.6 points. Last week, DAX 40 came under pressure from weak data from the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. The business climate index fell from 86.3 to 84.4 points against a forecast of 85.7, the current economic situation gauge dropped from 86.7 to 85.4 points versus an expected 86.2, and the business expectations component slipped from 85.9 to 83.3 points against a forecast of 85.0. All readings came in weaker than analysts had anticipated, hitting their lowest levels since 2020. Management surveys point to sharply rising costs, supply chain disruptions, and a drop in new orders — all driven by the Middle East conflict and, in particular, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Against this backdrop, growth forecasts for the EU and Germany are being revised down en masse. A joint forecast from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), the Ifo Institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), and the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research projects German GDP growth of just 0.8% in 2026 — down from 1.2% in the November forecast — while the inflation outlook has been raised to 2.8% from a prior 2.0%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also expects growth of only 0.8%, some 0.3 percentage points below its previous estimate. The key driver is the rapid surge in energy prices. German inflation accelerated to 2.7% year-on-year in March from 1.9% in February — the highest level since early 2024 — with petrol prices up 20.0% and light heating oil up 44.4%. Core inflation, however, remains at 2.5%, suggesting that a broad-based pass-through of the energy shock into other goods and services prices has not yet materialised.

Equity market dynamics are also pointing lower: shares of Qiagen N.V., a developer of molecular diagnostics and life science research technologies, lost 7.0–10.0% after the company cut its revenue growth forecast to 1.0–2.0% from a prior 5.0%, citing weak US demand and geopolitical uncertainty. Shares of multinational conglomerate Bayer AG fell more than 6.5%, partly due to capital rotation away from risk assets, while Germany's leading energy technology company Siemens Energy declined 5.0–6.0% amid profit-taking following a recent rally and mixed quarterly results, where strong order growth was offset by weak revenue figures.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are turning horizontal as the price range narrows, reflecting the mixed nature of near-term trading.

MACD maintains a relatively firm sell signal, trading below the signal line. Stochastic is also attempting to turn lower after a corrective bounce seen at the end of last week.

Resistance levels: 24248.8, 24550.0, 24882.3, 25200.0.

Support levels: 23769.4, 23395.4, 23080.2, 22704.7.

DAX 40 Trading Scenarios and Forecast

Short positions may be considered after a confident break below 23769.4, targeting 23080.2. Stop-loss at 24248.8. Time horizon: 2–3 days.

A return of bullish momentum followed by a breakout above 24248.8 may signal an opportunity to open long positions targeting 25200.0. Stop-loss at 23769.4.