ASX 200 holds near 9,150 as ANZ and NAB see an RBA pause

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% on November 3. Six board members voted for the increase and three favored holding the rate steady, according to the RBA’s post-meeting briefing. Economists at ANZ and National Australia Bank (NAB) expect the rate to remain unchanged in December. Lower oil prices could ease fuel costs for miners, while the Democrats’ gains in the US midterms could bring closer congressional scrutiny of US trade restrictions.

Australian government bond yields were higher than at the November 6 close. The one-year yield rose from 4.907% to 4.926%, the 10-year from 5.003% to 5.044%, the 20-year from 5.375% to 5.408%, and the 30-year from 5.452% to 5.482%.

Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (+12.93%), Xero (+6.08%), AUB Group (+5.05%), Tuas (+4.67%), and Summerset Group Holdings (+3.78%) were among the gainers.

Decliners included GQG Partners (−8.97%), PLS Group (−8.06%), Liontown (−6.99%), Genesis Minerals (−5.37%), and IGO (−5.12%).

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, the index has recovered from the levels covered in our October 26 ASX 200 outlook. It remains below the upper boundary of the established rising channel, whose dynamic boundaries are 9300.0 and 8900.0.

Technical indicators continue to favor the upside. The Alligator’s faster moving averages are slightly above the slower ones, and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram remains above zero.

Support levels are 9090.0 and 8900.0.

Resistance levels are 9170.0 and 9370.0.

Trading scenarios and ASX 200 forecast

A sustained move above 9170.0 could trigger the long setup, with a target at 9370.0 and a stop-loss at 9050.0. The expected time horizon is seven days or longer. A sustained break below 9090.0 could trigger the short setup, with a target at 8900.0 and a stop-loss at 9200.0.