The ETH/USD pair continues to form a medium-term downtrend, correcting within a long-term uptrend. Last week, the price reached 3750.00 (Murray level [4/8]) at the lower boundary of the descending channel but failed to break lower and resumed growth. Currently, the price has consolidated above 3962.50 (Murray level [5/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%), supported by the middle Bollinger Band. However, confirmation of an uptrend will only occur after the price secures above 4375.00 (Murray level [6/8]) with a breakout of the upper boundary of the ascending channel — in this case, the movement could continue toward 5000.00 (Murray level [8/8]) and 5625.00 (Murray level [+2/8]). The key level for the “bears” remains 3750.00 (Murray level [4/8]): consolidation below it could trigger further decline toward 3125.00 (Murray level [2/8], Fibonacci correction 50.0%) and 2500.00 (Murray level [0/8]).
Technical indicators suggest the possibility of further downside momentum: Bollinger Bands are turning downward, MACD is declining but remains in the negative zone, while Stochastic is moving upward but has reached the overbought area, indicating a potential reversal ahead.
Support and resistance levels
Resistance levels: 4375.00, 5000.00, 5625.00.
Support levels: 3750.00, 3125.00, 2500.00.
Trading scenarios and ETH/USD forecast
Short positions can be opened below 3750.00 with targets at 3125.00 and 2500.00, and a stop-loss at 4075.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Long positions can be opened above 4375.00 with targets at 5000.00 and 5625.00, and a stop-loss at 3960.00.
Scenario
| Timeframe |
Weekly |
| Recommendation |
SELL STOP |
| Entry point |
3749.95 |
| Take Profit |
3125.00, 2500.00 |
| Stop Loss |
4075.00 |
| Key levels |
2500.00, 3125.00, 3750.00, 4375.00, 5000.00, 5625.00 |
Alternative scenario
| Recommendation |
BUY STOP |
| Entry point |
4375.05 |
| Take Profit |
5000.00, 5625.00 |
| Stop Loss |
3960.00 |
| Key levels |
2500.00, 3125.00, 3750.00, 4375.00, 5000.00, 5625.00 |
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