Bitcoin Price Forecast: Can BTC/USD Break Above $82,000?

Thus, the decision by the U.S. Treasury Department to double the volume of long-term securities buybacks from $2.0 billion to $4.0 billion after their yields rose to 19-year highs pushed the price of “digital gold” up by more than 29.0% to 81250.00 (Murray level [6/8]). The asset then gave back part of its gains and corrected toward 78125.00 (Murray level [5/8]) following comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, which proved considerably more hawkish than most experts had expected. The official said that if inflation does not begin moving back toward the 2.0% target, the regulator will have to take action, since monetary conditions are not yet restrictive while the labor market remains consistent with full employment. Analysts interpreted this rhetoric as a signal of an approaching tightening of monetary policy, which strengthened the U.S. dollar against alternative assets, including digital ones, and contributed to a $201.9 million decline in Bitcoin ETF balances at the end of last week.

At present, the price has stabilized near 78125.00 under the influence of several opposing factors. Pressure on the asset comes from rising geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, as well as a hacker attack on Tectonic, a major blockchain lending application within the Cronos cryptocurrency ecosystem developed by Cronos Labs. Last week, the White House announced a shift toward greater economic pressure on Iran through stronger secondary sanctions against countries and organizations maintaining economic cooperation with the Islamic Republic, which experts believed had reduced the likelihood of further military escalation. Nevertheless, the sides exchanged missile strikes again over the weekend, increasing the risk of higher oil prices, stronger inflationary pressure and a more hawkish stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, the Tectonic blockchain protocol was halted after attackers exploited a software vulnerability and gained access to assets worth approximately $75.0 million.

On the other hand, further weakness in the sector is being limited by new comments from Michael Saylor, Chairman of Strategy Inc., which is considered the largest publicly traded holder of BTC. The day before, he hinted that the company could return to purchasing the token after a two-month pause in acquisitions.

Overall, sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains positive despite several negative factors, as reflected by the Fear & Greed Index, which remains in the “Greed” zone at 62.

Support and resistance levels

The trading instrument is currently near 78125.00 (Murray level [5/8]). A consolidation above this level could open the way toward 82000.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 87500.00 (Murray level [8/8]). However, if the price consolidates below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 71875.00 (Murray level [3/8]), the upward trend may reverse, with a decline toward 65625.00 (Murray level [1/8]) and 62500.00 (Murray level [0/8]). Technical indicators continue to signal buying opportunities: the Bollinger Bands are pointing upward, the MACD histogram remains stable in positive territory, while the Stochastic indicator is turning higher from the oversold zone.

Support levels: 71875.00, 65625.00, 62500.00.

Resistance levels: 78125.00, 82000.00, 87500.00.

BTC/USD Trading Scenarios and Price Forecast

Long positions can be opened from 79000.00 with targets at 82000.00 and 87500.00 and a stop-loss at 76500.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions can be opened below 71875.00 with targets at 65625.00 and 62500.00 and a stop-loss at 76600.00.