XRP/USD Forecast: Ripple Tests 1.1120 as Fed Rate Hike Risks Pressure Crypto Market

Nonfarm payrolls amounted to 172.0K, exceeding the consensus forecast of 85.0K and the April figure revised to 179.0K, while unemployment remained at 4.3% for the third consecutive month. Combined revisions for March and April added 93.0K to previously reported figures, almost completely ruling out a shift toward dovish rhetoric from the regulator. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, the probability of at least one 25-basis-point interest rate hike is now close to 70.0%. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), market participants will focus on the consumer price index, which, according to preliminary estimates, will reach 4.2% year-on-year, more than twice the 2.0% target and also a signal for the U.S. Federal Reserve to shift toward a hawkish cycle.

Meanwhile, Ripple is expanding the presence of its dollar-backed stablecoin RLUSD in one of the most active cryptocurrency markets in the MENA region, launching access to the asset in Turkey through partnerships with stablecoin infrastructure platform Bilira and local crypto exchanges Bitexen and Bitlo. This will certainly help attract new investors, as the annual volume of cryptocurrency transactions in the country was estimated at around 200.0 billion dollars last year. According to Ripple’s management, user activity is four times higher than the same figure in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while the “Geography of Crypto 2025” report by Chainalysis, a leading analytics platform for monitoring and investigating blockchain transactions, states that these positive results were achieved thanks to a combination of factors, including high inflation, pressure on the lira, and broad retail and institutional participation. At the same time, Turkey’s Capital Markets Board (CMB) introduced a licensing system for digital asset operators in 2024, forming the basis for integrating stablecoins into regulated financial infrastructure. It is worth noting that since its launch in the same year, RLUSD’s market capitalization has reached 1.7 billion dollars, reflecting steady institutional demand for a regulated instrument for cross-border payments, hedging, and treasury operations. According to Jack McDonald, Ripple’s Senior Vice President of Stablecoins, the token has gained popularity because it “serves as an important bridge for payments, tokenization, and collateral management.”

Support and resistance levels

Quotes are trading slightly above the support line of the descending channel with dynamic boundaries at 1.4940–1.0550, preparing for another attempt to test the local low of 1.0477.

Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: the EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator is expanding downward, while the AO histogram is trading at a sufficient distance from the transition level, forming new downward bars.

Support levels: 1.0860, 0.8200.

Resistance levels: 1.1870, 1.4850.

XRP/USD trading scenarios and forecast

Short positions may be opened after the price consolidates below 1.0860, with a target at 0.8200 and a stop-loss at 1.2000. Expected timeframe: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price consolidates above 1.1870, with a target at 1.4850 and a stop-loss at 1.1100.