Amid escalating geopolitical and trade tensions, investors are experiencing a deep crisis of confidence in digital assets, which are still not perceived as a universal store of value during periods of global instability. As a result, the risk of a military confrontation between the US and Iran, combined with uncertainty surrounding White House tariff policy, has driven capital flows into traditional safe-haven assets, primarily gold. At the same time, the US dollar is receiving support from expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain current monetary parameters for an extended period. Last month, the Fed kept interest rates in the 3.50–3.75% range, citing economic resilience and declining risks to both inflation and employment.
Meanwhile, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next head of the US financial authorities—who, according to representatives of the Republican administration, could return to a more dovish policy stance in his new role—has unexpectedly faced strong resistance in the Senate. Members of both the Republican and Democratic parties are concerned that his appointment could undermine the Fed’s independence and erode market confidence in monetary policy decisions. As a result, the leadership transition process may become significantly more complicated. Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2), US investors will focus on labor market data. If no signs of weakening are recorded—as currently expected, with unemployment likely to remain at 4.4% and job growth accelerating from 50,000 to 79,000—pressure on non-dollar assets may intensify. This is already reflected in investor sentiment: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the “extreme fear” zone at a reading of 9. In addition, Ethereum ETF balances, which reached $57.0 million on Monday, have only partially offset last week’s outflows of $165.8 million.
Turning to the Ethereum blockchain itself, developers have recently grown increasingly concerned about the rise in illicit financial activity, which poses risks to user capital. According to ScamSniffer estimates, $84.0 billion was siphoned off through such schemes over the past year. Against this backdrop, the Ethereum Foundation has partnered with the non-profit Security Alliance (SEAL), which specializes in crypto security, to track and neutralize fraudulent schemes involving various forms of social engineering. It is also worth noting recent comments from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who shared his vision for the interaction between blockchain technology and artificial intelligence (AI). In his view, integration should aim to enhance user capabilities rather than replace human decision-making. Such technologies could help identify fraudulent activity and optimize transactions.
In his published analysis, Buterin outlines potential synergy scenarios, including the use of AI to improve user interfaces, automatically detect risks, and support smart contract operations. At the same time, he highlights associated vulnerabilities related to the reliability and security of high-risk applications. Additionally, Buterin warns that AI integration into critical blockchain modules must be approached with caution, as errors or the exploitation of compromised agents could lead to significant financial losses.
Support and resistance levels
From a technical perspective, ETH/USD remains within a medium-term downtrend, despite earlier attempts to recover lost ground. To resume a more pronounced upward move, the price must consolidate above 2,500.00 (Murray level [4/8]), reinforced by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. In this case, a test of targets at 3,125.00 (Murray level [6/8], 50.0% Fibonacci retracement) and 3,560.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) would be likely. A renewed breakdown below 1,875.00 (Murray level [2/8]) would signal a continuation of the decline toward 1,250.00 (Murray level [0/8]) and 937.50 (Murray level [–1/8]).
Technical indicators continue to point to a bearish bias: Bollinger Bands are turning lower, the MACD histogram is expanding in negative territory, and the Stochastic oscillator is approaching overbought levels.
Resistance levels: 2,500.00, 3,125.00, 3,560.00.
Support levels: 1,875.00, 1,250.00, 937.50.
Trading scenarios and ETH/USD outlook
Short positions can be considered below 1,875.00, with targets at 1,250.00 and 937.50 and a stop-loss at 2,240.00. Time horizon: 5–7 days.
Long positions can be considered above 2,500.00, with targets at 3,125.00 and 3,560.00 and a stop-loss at 2,070.00.
