Meanwhile, the decline in inflation in the EU to its lowest levels since September 2024 supports expectations of a possible resumption of policy easing, which is exerting significant pressure on the euro. At the same time, markets are pricing in a cumulative 62 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year, supported by the disinflationary trend (with CPI slowing to 2.4%) and ongoing concerns about the independence of the country’s main financial regulator. Yesterday, traders focused on December durable goods orders, a key indicator of business activity and corporate investment: total orders fell by 1.4% month-on-month after a 5.4% increase, compared with a consensus forecast of –2.0%. At the same time, core capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft rose by 0.6% versus expectations of 0.3%, while the revised November figure was adjusted up to 0.8%. Shipments in this segment, which are directly included in GDP calculations, increased by 0.9%, confirming a continued investment impulse supported by tax incentives. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), investors await weekly jobless claims data, with forecasts suggesting initial claims for the week ending February 13 will ease from 227.0K to 225.0K.
GBP/USD
The pound is extending a short-term bearish trend, already pushing prices to fresh local lows from January 22, and during the Asian session is testing the 1.3485 level for a downside breakout as investors assess data released this week. On Tuesday, the December–January labor market report showed the unemployment rate rising to 5.2% from 5.1% in the previous quarter, reaching its highest level since early 2021. The number of unemployed increased by 94.0K to 1.883 million, while regular wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to 4.2% in December 2025 from 4.6%, marking the weakest pace in nearly four years. Inflation data then came into focus: as expected, annual inflation slowed from 3.4% to 3.0%, while monthly inflation fell by 0.5% after a 0.4% increase previously. The confirmation of these forecasts significantly increases the likelihood that the Bank of England will soon shift toward a more dovish stance, adding further pressure to the British currency.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is correcting after the bearish impulse formed the previous day, testing the 0.7047 level for a downside breakout during the Asian session, while investors focus on key labor market data. Full-time employment in Australia rose by a solid 50.5K in January, slightly below the previous month’s 56.8K (with December revised up from 54.8K), while part-time employment fell by 32.7K after a 11.7K increase. Overall employment, seasonally adjusted, increased by just 17.8K, well below December’s 68.5K, though close to market expectations of a sharp slowdown to 20.0K. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, contrary to forecasts of an increase to 4.2%. Earlier wage data showed quarterly growth holding at 0.8% in Q4, while annual growth accelerated from 3.3% to 3.4%, with private-sector wages rising 3.4% and public-sector wages 4.0%, the highest since mid-2024. Capacity utilization increased to 76.2% from 75.7%, confirming a recovery in industrial operating activity. These data are important for shaping the outlook for U.S. Federal Reserve policy: moderate corporate investment growth and a rebound in industrial production indicate the U.S. economy can sustain domestic demand without significant inflationary pressure, allowing the Fed to maintain its current rate. Combined with the recent slowdown in headline CPI to 2.4% year-on-year (below expectations of 2.5%) and a rise in core inflation to 2.5%, this strengthens the case for a cautious, data-dependent approach. For global markets, including the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), such data signal resilient external demand and potential pressure on global commodity prices. Rising U.S. corporate investment, especially in the technology sector, supports demand for metals and energy, which are critical exports for Australia. Investors are also assessing the RBA’s February 3 decision to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%.
USD/JPY
The U.S. dollar is extending its upward trend, testing the 155.30 level for a breakout and setting fresh local highs from February 10. Pressure on the yen continues following weak Japanese GDP data for the fourth quarter, which showed growth of just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter versus forecasts of 0.4%. On an annualized basis, growth was only 0.2%, sharply contrasting with expectations of 1.6% and highlighting ongoing structural issues in the Japanese economy. Investors will now focus on inflation data due tomorrow at 01:50 (GMT+2). Preliminary estimates suggest that the core inflation rate excluding food and energy will slow from 2.4% to 2.0% in January, further reducing the likelihood of the Bank of Japan tightening monetary policy. Another factor shaping USD/JPY dynamics is the deepening investment relationship between Japan and the U.S.: the government of Sanae Takaichi plans to invest up to $36.0 billion in oil, gas, and mineral extraction projects as part of a broader $550.0 billion commitment under a trade agreement with the Republican administration in the White House.
XAU/USD
XAU/USD prices are showing modest gains during the Asian session, developing a tentative corrective move and testing the psychological 5000.0 level for a breakout, as investors await new drivers. Gold received notable support this week from the release of the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting, which confirmed the regulator’s cautious approach to easing. Most policymakers emphasized the appropriateness of a wait-and-see stance until clearer evidence of sustained disinflation emerges. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors expect cumulative rate cuts of around 65 basis points this year, equivalent to two to three small moves. However, the minutes highlighted ongoing concerns about uneven disinflation, limiting gold’s upside as slower rate cuts increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Alongside macro factors, geopolitics in the Middle East remains influential: the second round of indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. concluded yesterday, and according to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the dialogue was more “constructive” than before, as delegations arrived in Geneva with full technical and economic preparation, signaling serious intent to reach an agreement. Media reports suggest Iran is open to compromise options to revive a “nuclear deal,” including discussions on uranium enrichment levels, provided U.S. sanctions are eased; transferring part of enriched uranium to third parties, such as Russia, is also not ruled out. A key structural factor underpinning gold’s long-term support remains strong demand from global central banks: since 2022, they have been purchasing more than 800–1,000 tonnes of physical gold annually to diversify reserves and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar. In 2025, purchases totaled 863 tonnes, with the largest buyers being Poland (102 tonnes), Kazakhstan (57 tonnes), Brazil (43 tonnes), and Azerbaijan (38 tonnes). Analysts forecast that central banks will acquire around 800 tonnes of gold in 2026, broadly in line with last year and continuing to provide fundamental support for prices.
