Why long-term holders matter now
One group sits at the center of the next leg: long-term holders (LTH). The MVRV Long/Short Difference — a gauge that contrasts profitability between veteran and newer wallets — has climbed to a 12-month high. In plain terms, LTH are deep in profit.
That usually shows underlying strength, but it also raises the odds of profit-taking. When longer-horizon wallets start locking in gains, they can supply enough sell flow to pressure price lower.
NUPL flashes a late-cycle vibe
Long-term holders’ NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) has also reached an eight-month high. Historically, readings pushing above roughly 0.60 have preceded local tops as investors crystallize gains. If that pattern repeats, ETH could have more room to the downside before a durable base forms.
Key levels: $4,000, $3,000, and the historical analog
ETH recently traded around $4,219. A continued drift under $4,000 would not be surprising if LTH start selling into strength. In prior cycles, similar NUPL setups were followed by washouts toward the high-$2,000s; dips toward $3,000 — even spikes near $2,800 — appeared before trend resumed.
What invalidates the bear case
If long-term holders stay put and selling dries up, ETH could rebound. Reclaiming and holding $4,222 would open a path back toward $4,500, undermining the current bearish read. Absent broad LTH distribution, the market can stabilize faster than expected.
Key Levels
• Resistance: $4,222 / $4,500 / $4,750
• Support: $4,000 / $3,000 / $2,800
Trading Scenarios
Primary Scenario
• Recommendation: SELL STOP
• Entry: $3,990
• Take Profit: $3,000 / $2,800
• Stop Loss: $4,300
• Timeframe: 7–10 days
Alternative Scenario
• Recommendation: BUY STOP
• Entry: $4,250
• Take Profit: $4,500 / $4,750
• Stop Loss: $4,050
• Timeframe: 7–10 days
Bottom line: The setup is balanced on LTH behavior. Elevated unrealized gains create the risk of another leg down toward $3,000 if profit-taking gathers pace, especially with leverage still resetting and on-chain activity cooler. If holders stay put and macro lands softly, ETH can base above $4,000 and re-attempt $4,500.
Earlier, FORECK.INFO reported on the SEC’s policy shift, noting that only a handful of tokens are now likely to be classified as securities.