XRP/USD Forecast: ETF Launch Drives Volatility, Key Levels to Watch

Trading volume on day one (September 18) reached $37.7 million, marking the most successful ETF debut this year. However, by Monday, September 22, XRP/USD slipped into correction as institutional investors rotated funds from regular XRP tokens into the new ETF. As a result, quotes dropped toward 2.6950.

Currently, the pair is attempting to recover, though progress is capped by uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Last week, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further adjustments, which initially lifted non-dollar assets. Still, subsequent comments from policymakers sounded less dovish than markets expected. Most officials argue there is no rush to ease further since inflation remains well above the 2.0% target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated this view in his speech at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce in Warwick, Rhode Island, stressing the need to balance high inflation risks against labor market weakness. Despite his remarks, analysts still expect two more rate cuts this year. Key PCE inflation data, due Friday at 14:30 (GMT+2), could be decisive: softer readings would raise the odds of another cut and support major cryptocurrencies, while stronger data may push XRP/USD lower again.

Support and Resistance Levels

The pair remains locked in the 3.1250–2.7344 sideways channel (Murray [4/8]–[2/8]) and will need to break out before a new trend can form. A move below 2.7344 could trigger a decline toward 2.3438 (Murray [0/8]) and 2.1484 (Murray [–1/8]). Conversely, a breakout above 3.1250 would open the way toward 3.5156 (Murray [6/8]) and 3.9062 (Murray [8/8]).

Technical indicators remain mixed: Bollinger Bands are flat, MACD sits near the zero line with low volumes, while Stochastic is reversing upward from oversold territory.

Resistance levels: 3.1250, 3.5156, 3.9062.

Support levels: 2.7344, 2.3438, 2.1484.

XRP/USD Trading Scenarios and Outlook

Short positions may be considered below 2.7344 with targets at 2.3438 and 2.1484, and a stop-loss at 3.0380. Horizon: 5–7 days.

Long positions may be opened above 3.1250 with targets at 3.5156 and 3.9062, and a stop-loss at 2.9600.