The key developments, however, are still ahead. On December 26, a record volume of crypto options contracts reaches expiration. Estimates suggest that options with a notional value of around $23.8 billion are expiring today, representing more than half of total open interest on Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange.
The situation is made particularly significant by the high concentration of positions within a narrow price range. Roughly 14,674 BTC are positioned in put options clustered around $85,000, while approximately 18,116 BTC are tied to call options near the $100,000 level.
Although the put/call ratio at 0.38 points to a dominance of bullish expectations, the current options structure effectively acts as a temporary constraint ahead of expiration. It caps upside momentum while cushioning downside moves. Market makers and institutional hedgers typically keep the Bitcoin price within the $85,000–$100,000 range, with many models placing the calculated max pain level between $90,000 and $96,000.
The max pain level refers to the price zone at which the largest number of call and put options expire worthless at settlement. In this scenario, options buyers incur the greatest aggregate losses, while options sellers realize minimal losses or maximum profit.
From a max-pain perspective, the market experiences a statistical “pull” toward the $90,000–$96,000 range. A move into this zone would cause many currently in-the-money put options to expire worthless, while most call options would not move far enough into profit to trigger substantial payouts.
After 09:00 CET, once the contracts have fully expired, analysts — including QCP Capital — expect a repricing of market risk. In the short term, sharp moves in either direction remain possible, while over the medium term the market may see a release of the so-called “options cap” and a renewed attempt to challenge the $100,000 level in January, provided no additional macroeconomic shocks emerge.