Markets remain focused on preliminary US gross domestic product (GDP) data. In the third quarter, the economy expanded by 4.3% year-on-year, marking the strongest pace in the past two years and significantly exceeding the consensus forecast of 3.3%. The main driver of growth was an acceleration in consumer spending from 2.5% to 3.5%.

At the same time, analysts warn that a temporary government shutdown could have a negative impact on GDP dynamics in the fourth quarter. However, in the medium term, experts expect a moderate economic recovery in 2026, supported by tax refunds to households and the potential revision or partial suspension of trade tariffs introduced under President Donald Trump’s administration.

Eurozone

The euro is strengthening against the US dollar, while showing weakness versus the Japanese yen and mixed performance against the British pound.

Germany’s November import price index data showed an acceleration from 0.2% to 0.5% on a monthly basis, while the annual decline deepened from –1.4% to –1.9%. The largest contribution came from a 15.7% drop in energy prices, while agricultural goods fell by 3.2%.

Additional pressure on the economy comes from declining tax revenues. According to Germany’s Federal Ministry of Finance, government and regional tax receipts fell by 1.3% year-on-year. Analysts note that global trade uncertainty and higher US tariffs continue to weigh on the eurozone’s largest economy, with total tax revenues this year projected at €903.77 billion, around 5.0% below previous estimates.

United Kingdom

The British pound is gaining against the US dollar, weakening versus the Japanese yen, and trading mixed against the euro.

According to a survey conducted by the British Chambers of Commerce, more than 54.0% of exporters said that the trade agreement with the EU concluded during Brexit in 2021 has delivered no tangible benefits. The share of dissatisfied companies has increased by 13.0% compared with last year.

Only 4 out of 946 surveyed firms consider the level of government support to be sufficient. Business representatives are urging the authorities to prioritise the reduction of trade barriers with the EU, which they see as a key factor in reviving economic growth.

Japan

The Japanese yen is strengthening against the US dollar, the euro and the British pound.

The currency received support from comments by Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who said that authorities are ready to act against excessive exchange-rate volatility. According to her, the current movement of the yen does not reflect fundamental factors and is largely driven by speculative activity.

Investors interpreted these remarks as a signal of possible currency intervention, although analysts note that similar measures in the past have produced only short-term effects and failed to address the structural causes behind the yen’s weakness.

Australia

The Australian dollar is strengthening against the euro, the pound and the US dollar, while showing mixed dynamics versus the yen.

Minutes from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting show that policymakers discussed the possibility of raising interest rates in 2026 but decided to wait for more up-to-date inflation data. RBA Governor Michele Bullock previously struck a hawkish tone, ruling out further rate cuts and warning that tighter monetary policy may be required if inflation pressures persist.

Markets currently assign a 25.0% probability to a rate hike as early as February, while traders are almost fully pricing in tighter monetary conditions by July.

Oil

Oil prices are showing moderate gains amid rising geopolitical tensions. The United States has effectively imposed a maritime blockade on Venezuela’s coastline and has detained several oil tankers, including vessels owned by Chinese companies.

President Donald Trump stated that the confiscated crude would be sold, with the proceeds directed to the state budget. These actions have heightened investor concerns about potential supply disruptions and the risk of escalating tensions with China.

On the other hand, price gains are being capped by forecasts from Barclays PLC, which expects an oversupply of around 700,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2026. Later today, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly fuel inventory report. Previously, inventories fell by 9.3 million barrels, and a continuation of this trend could support further upside in oil prices.