“If the Bank of Japan postpones quantitative tightening and resumes selective QE at its June meeting, risk assets will skyrocket,” Hayes wrote, highlighting the global impact that Japanese monetary policy can have on digital assets.
QE is a central bank strategy involving large-scale government bond purchases and liquidity injections, aimed at lowering rates and stimulating the economy during challenging periods. The Bank of Japan is currently evaluating the results of its QT policy, which began in August 2024 and targeted a quarterly reduction of government bond purchases by 400 billion yen.
I don’t think ordinary Japanese plebes would agree. If the BOJ delays QT, and restarts selected QE at its June meeting risk assets are going to fly.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) June 10, 2025
LFG $BTC pic.twitter.com/ET08M6tWeS
Bloomberg reports that the BOJ is considering reducing the pace of QT to 200 billion yen (nearly $1.4 billion) per quarter, starting in April 2027—essentially halving its original plan.
According to Andrei Dragos, Head of European Research at Bitwise, Japan’s bond market crisis has driven institutional investors to re-evaluate Bitcoin as a hedge against sovereign debt risks. “When perceived default risk rises, yields rise. That’s a key reason why Bitcoin could target $200,000. It is free from counterparty risk,” Dragos told reporters.
Traditionally, government bonds have been seen as a “safe haven.” However, the recent spike in yields signals mounting investor anxiety over financial stability and the government’s ability to service its debt.
Against this backdrop, a possible return by the Bank of Japan to QE later this month may not only reshape the Japanese bond market but could also trigger a global rally in cryptocurrencies—especially Bitcoin.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at $108,736, according to TradingView.
BTC/USDT daily chart, Binance (TradingView)Earlier, Hayes projected a Bitcoin price of $250,000 in 2025 and predicted a potential altcoin season to follow.