Bitcoin and the Post-Summer Lull
Like equities, Bitcoin and crypto often take a breather over the summer. This year, BTC slightly beat its average July return with an 8.1% gain, but August disappointed: Bitcoin closed Sunday at $108,200, down 6.5% from July. The bigger concern: historically, September is Bitcoin’s worst month, with an average –3.3% return—stoking fears of further declines.
A table of Bitcoin’s monthly percentage changes from 2013 to 2025 shows gains in green and losses in red, including yearly rows plus the average and median for each month (January–December).
Even in the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, investors faced losses: September returns were –7.4% and –7.0%, respectively. A similar drop now would push BTC dangerously close to the psychologically important $100,000 level. What offers hope: in 2017 and 2021, July and August posted far stronger gains, implying September’s pullbacks followed overheated conditions. That’s not the case today—BTC sits about 12% below its all-time high, and the Fear & Greed Index currently reads “neutral,” leaving room for upside.
A Bitcoin-focused Fear & Greed Index shows a neutral reading of 49. Historical values: yesterday 46 (fear), last week 48 (neutral), last month 53 (neutral)
What September 2025 brings for long-term holders may hinge on the Fed’s rate decision in two weeks. As Bitcoin grows, macro factors—especially monetary policy—matter more than halving cycles. If Chair Jerome Powell cuts rates and signals further easing, Bitcoin and other risk assets could benefit. Crypto billionaire Arthur Hayes argues BTC’s long-term path depends primarily on “how many dollars, euros, yen, and yuan are created and destroyed.” The effect may take weeks to show—potentially setting the stage for a traditionally strong fourth quarter.
Strategy and Metaplanet Are All-In
Among corporate Bitcoin treasuries, two stand out. First, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, now holds 636,505 BTC worth $70 billion, announcing large purchases almost weekly. Second, Metaplanet, its Japanese counterpart, holds exactly 20,000 BTC after its latest buy—up an eye-catching 486% this year.
A table lists the 10 largest publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin, with company names, U.S. flags, tickers, and each firm’s BTC holdings.
Since the fourth halving, miners produce about 450 BTC per day, roughly 109,000 new coins year-to-date. The fact that Strategy alone acquired more than that implies a medium- to long-term supply squeeze on exchanges. If ETF investors return, BTC could set substantially higher records by year-end. In August, U.S. Bitcoin index funds from BlackRock, Fidelity, and others saw $750 million in net outflows—contrast that with nearly $4 billion flowing into Ethereum products.
With more major U.S. banks—JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo—now offering Bitcoin ETFs to clients, a sustained trend reversal could be near. Despite a weak August, U.S. spot ETFs currently hold 1.29 million BTC worth $140 billion. Additional buying could come if the Trump administration opens retirement plans to Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Interested savers would likely invest via BTC funds and hold the coins indirectly for the long term.
How High Could BTC Go in Q4?
Investors who resist getting spooked by weeks of volatility could be rewarded in October and November, historically Bitcoin’s strongest months with average returns of 22% and 46%. Real-estate developer Leon Wankum is optimistic: “I expect Bitcoin at $150,000–$180,000.” He says this range aligns with the well-known power law and looks realistic given corporate treasuries and potential index inclusions. Indeed, Michael Saylor’s Strategy is reportedly close to joining the S&P 500.
Adam Back, early Bitcoin investor and co-inventor of Proof-of-Work, is even more upbeat: “We could see around $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2025.” Many institutions made public announcements in spring, but implementing processes and policies often takes half a year. Once they truly enter the market, retail investors may follow, adding fresh momentum. In a reflexive market like Bitcoin’s, “people buy when they see the price rise,” potentially culminating in the parabolic peak of the bull market.