On Wednesday, as expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% amid slowing economic activity, weaker job creation, and rising unemployment. The decision was not unanimous: Board member Steven Miran, recently confirmed by the Senate, advocated a larger 50 bps cut, arguing it would better support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The split within the FOMC reflects growing pressure on the central bank’s leadership from President Donald Trump. Experts now anticipate at least two more rate reductions this year, to around 3.60%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the commitment to the 2.0% inflation target, while noting that monetary decisions will continue to weigh a broad set of factors. Analysts believe only a 50 bps move would have meaningfully lifted the sector. According to Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, a global shift toward easier monetary policy combined with seasonal factors could catalyze a fresh BTC and ETH rally in Q4. He recalled that the September 2024 pullback from the 20-year rate peak (5.25–5.50%) significantly boosted liquidity and strengthened institutional confidence, though recent doubts over the resilience of corporate treasury strategies have weighed on “digital gold.” Notably, the largest BTC treasurer, Strategy, was denied inclusion in the S&P 500 despite formally meeting criteria. JPMorgan Chase & Co. sees this as index providers’ caution toward companies heavily using crypto reserves. Analysts warn MSCI and Russell could take similar steps; conversely, an inclusion of Strategy might attract capital equivalent to buying roughly 250,000 BTC, increasing the industry’s reliance on passive flows.
Meanwhile, Citibank’s research desk forecast ETH could slip to 4,300.0 by year-end due to softer demand in DeFi and NFTs—areas where Ethereum is core infrastructure. Competition from alternative blockchains like Solana and Cardano remains an additional headwind. Even so, Ethereum retains a central role in global finance: in September, institutional demand, staking volumes, and on-chain activity hit peak levels. Funds have doubled their ETH reserves since April 2025 to 6.5 million ETH, and large holders with 10,000–100,000 ETH now control more than 20 million ETH. Total staked ETH reached 36.15 million, reducing circulating supply and bolstering network confidence. Daily smart-contract calls exceeded 12 million, and exchange-held ETH fell to a record low of 0.14 million, continuing a decline since July 20.
Separately, the Bank of England proposed caps on payment stablecoin holdings: £20,000 for individuals and £10 million for legal entities. Sasha Mills, head of Financial Market Infrastructure, said the limits are temporary and aimed at reducing scaling risks for new payment systems. In parallel, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced an expansion of its crypto suite: starting October 13, options on XRP and Solana futures will become available. Community interest is tied to strong liquidity: since launch, Solana futures volume has reached $22.3 billion and XRP’s $16.2 billion. Experts believe this will strengthen crypto’s position in the institutional segment and broaden access to new hedging strategies.
Next week, most leading crypto assets may either continue to advance or shift into consolidation.