For 2025, the EIA cut its average price forecast by 1.5%, from $68.89 per barrel to $67.22. The outlook for the fourth quarter is even weaker — $58.00 per barrel — as global crude inventories swell following the decision by eight OPEC+ members to exit their voluntary production-cut agreement.
Looking ahead to 2026, the agency expects an average Brent price of $51.00, with the yearly low potentially hitting $49.00 as early as March. EIA analysts believe major producers could respond to falling prices by trimming output again. OPEC+ is expected to reduce production by 200,000 barrels per day in 2026, while the U.S. could cut around 100,000 barrels per day if prices drop below the $50 mark.
On Tuesday, API data showed U.S. crude inventories rising by 1.5 million barrels, reversing the prior week’s drawdown of 4.2 million barrels. The market now awaits today’s official EIA inventory report (16:30 GMT+2), with expectations for a 0.5 million barrel build after last week’s 3.029 million barrel drop.
Technical Picture
On the daily chart, Brent prices have returned to test the lower boundary of a descending channel in the $74.00–$65.00 range, keeping the broader downtrend intact. Technical indicators remain aligned with the bearish bias: the Alligator’s fast EMAs are positioned just below the signal line, while the AO histogram in the sell zone continues to print corrective bars.
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Support: $64.40, $60.80
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Resistance: $67.20, $70.70
Trading Scenarios
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Sell Stop: Below $64.40, targeting $60.80. Stop-loss: $66.00. Timeframe: 7+ days.
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Buy Stop: Above $67.20, targeting $70.70. Stop-loss: $66.00.