Yesterday, the U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods after New Delhi refused to halt imports of Russian energy in an attempt to pressure the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine. As a result, Indian exports may shrink by about $37.0 billion, while the estimated benefit of discounted Russian imports (7.0%) is around $17.0 billion. If U.S. President Donald Trump were to cut tariffs back to 25.0%, India’s losses could be reduced by that same $17.0–18.0 billion. However, Indian officials are unlikely to change existing hydrocarbon supply agreements, keeping the sector relatively stable.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude stockpiles declined from –2.400 million barrels to –0.947 million barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also reported a drop, from –6.014 million barrels to –2.392 million barrels, aligning with forecasts of gradual inventory reductions. Meanwhile, futures trading volume in crude oil has slowed, reaching 740,000 contracts compared with 1.0–1.1 million at the start of August.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, WTI is pulling back from the support line of an ascending channel with dynamic boundaries between 77.00–65.00.

WTI Crude Oil

Technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are positioned below the signal line, while the AO histogram forms corrective bars in negative territory.

  • Resistance levels: 64.90, 69.80
  • Support levels: 61.90, 57.50

Trading Scenarios – Weekly Forecast

  • Bearish scenario: Short positions become relevant if the price drops and consolidates below 61.90, targeting 57.50. Stop-loss at 63.50. Timeframe: 7+ days.
  • Bullish scenario: Long positions become relevant if the price rises and consolidates above 64.90, targeting 69.80. Stop-loss at 63.50.

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly
  • Recommendation: SELL STOP
  • Entry Point: 61.90
  • Take Profit: 57.50
  • Stop Loss: 63.50
  • Key Levels: 57.50, 61.90, 64.90, 69.80

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP
  • Entry Point: 64.90
  • Take Profit: 69.80
  • Stop Loss: 63.50
  • Key Levels: 57.50, 61.90, 64.90, 69.80